【经济学人双语阅读】Jump scare? 大吃一惊？

Inflation

通货膨胀

Jump scare?

大吃一惊？

What an inflation surprise tells you about America’s reopening

出乎意料的通胀数据对美国经济重启的启示

As America’s economy bounces back from the pandemic, aided by trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus, the main question on investors’ minds is if and when inflation will take off. The Federal Reserve has vowed to tolerate a period of above-target price rises so that the economy can get back on its feet; Jerome Powell, its chairman, has said it is “not even thinking about thinking” about raising interest rates. Yet with many asset prices underpinned by rock-bottom rates, investors have been jumpy, fretting that high inflation could force the central bank’s hand.

在万亿财政计划的刺激之下，美国经济从新冠疫情中逐步回暖。此刻，投资者心中最担心的是，通货膨胀会不会爆发，以及何时会爆发。美联储已经宣布，为确保经济企稳回升，将在一定时期内容忍物价上涨高于目标水平；美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）也表示，关于加息，美联储“甚至连考虑一下的打算都没有”。鉴于多数资产的价格都离不开最低利率的支撑，投资者们一直提心吊胆，生怕通胀水平过高，会迫使美联储出手干预。

Then came a big inflation surprise. Figures published on May 12th showed that America’s consumer-price index rose by 4.2% year-on-year in April, a rate not seen since 2008, and considerably higher than the 3.6% that had been expected by forecasters. The s&p 500, America’s main stockmarket index, fell by 2% that day.

而接下来公布的通胀数据，确实让人感到意外。5月12日，美国公布的4月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比大涨4.2%，创2008年以来的最大涨幅，远高于专家们此前预期的3.6%。数据公布当日，美国主要股指标普500大跌2%。

By far the biggest factor behind the acceleration relates to the past, rather than the price pressures of today, as last year’s oil-price falls depressed the base used to calculate the annual rate. Yet even the monthly increase, stripped of more volatile food and energy prices, was 0.9%, the strongest since the 1980s. Data for a single month cannot tell you whether runaway inflation is around the corner. But the release says something about the realities of economic reopening.

截至目前，此次CPI加速上涨的背后，最大动因主要还是历史因素，而非当前的物价压力，因为去年原油价格下跌，拉低了物价的同比基数。然而，即便剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，核心CPI环比涨幅依然高达0.9%，创1980年代以来的涨幅之最。尽管一个月的数据还说明不了通胀失控是否近在咫尺，但CPI的公布，还是揭示了美国经济重启的一些真相。

Consumer demand in the world’s largest economy is roaring back. Stimulus cheques worth up to $1,400 were doled out to many Americans earlier in the year. Now a successful vaccination campaign is allowing them to get out and spend and restrictions to loosen. According to a tracker compiled by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, credit-card spending rose from a tenth below its pre-pandemic trend in the six months to March to only just below it by May.

作为全球最大经济体，美国的消费需求正在快速升温。最高金额1400美元的救济支票，已于今年早些时候发放到大部分美国人手中。现在，随着疫苗接种的顺利推进，美国人得以出门消费，防疫措施也逐步放松。根据摩根大通银行的跟踪报告，在3月之前的半年时间里，信用卡消费处于疫情前的九成水平，到了5月时，已十分接近疫情前水平。

The speed and nature of the post-lockdown bounceback seems to have caught many firms off guard. Not since the mid-1970s have companies been so likely to report delays in supplier deliveries, according to research published in March by Goldman Sachs, a bank. American retailers’ inventories, relative to revenues, have plunged to all-time lows, suggesting that shops are running out of things to sell. Many firms, especially smaller ones, had ordered insufficient supplies and are now frantically catching up. (By contrast, the inventories of large listed firms have not declined, either because they were better able to forecast the coming spending binge, or because their supply chains are more diversified.)

后抗疫时代经济复苏的速度和特点，似乎让许多公司都始料未及。根据高盛银行3月公布的报告结果，自上世纪70年代中期以来，公司从来没有像现在这样，总是出现供货延迟的情况。美国零售商的库销比暴跌至历史低位，说明店铺就快要无货可卖了。许多公司，尤其是小型公司，在疫情期间没有订购充足库存，现在都在疯狂补货。（相比之下，大型上市公司的库存并未下降，或许是因为它们对近期消费热潮的成功预判，或是因为其供货渠道更加多元。）

Yet surges in demand cannot immediately be fulfilled. Take imported supplies, for instance. Even at the best of times extra demand for international deliveries takes a while to sate; a ship can take a few weeks to sail from China to America. The added complication in 2021 is that firms must also contend with shortages of containers in some ports. Some were stuck in the wrong place during the first wave of lockdowns.

然而，需求的激增并不是说满足就能满足的。以进口商品为例，即便是在经济最好的时期，要满足额外的国际货运需求，也需要等好一阵子。货轮从中国开到美国，需要几周时间。更何况，公司还必须面对部分港口集装箱短缺的问题，这让2021年的情况变得更加复杂。有些集装箱在首轮封城时，就被困在了运输途中。

Moreover, workers cannot be hired overnight. Firms are struggling to recruit enough staff to fill open positions—perhaps a big reason why the jobs report for April, published on May 7th, showed that America had added just 266,000 jobs, well below the 1m or so that many economists had expected. The number of unfilled positions is running at an all-time high.

此外，招人也不是一两天的事。企业招聘举步维艰，恐怕是非农就业数据不尽人意的一大原因。5月7日的非农数据显示，美国新增就业人口26.6万人，远低于许多经济学家预期的100来万人。劳动力短缺程度史无前例。

Take the surge in demand and strained supply together, and you get to higher prices. Used cars and trucks are a good example. Their prices rose by a staggering 10% in April, contributing to the headline-inflation surprise. With people nervous of flying and public transport, more may want to get behind the wheel instead to see relatives in other parts of the country, or to get to work. But a global shortage of computer chips has also constrained the supply of new vehicles.

需求激增，加之供应短缺，物价上涨自然在情理之中。二手车市场就是个很好的例证。4月，二手车和二手卡车的价格同比大涨10%，涨幅惊人，也助推了标题中提到的通胀意外。由于人们害怕乘坐飞机和公共交通工具，在国内走亲戚或上班时，更多人愿意选择自驾。而计算机芯片在全球供应出现短缺，也限制了新车的产量。

Assured of sustained demand, other companies may also begin to pass on higher costs to customers. The cost of shipping items from China to America is now three times as expensive as it was before the pandemic, and input prices have picked up in the spring.

面对确定而持续的市场需求，一些公司也开始将增加的成本转嫁到消费者身上。目前，中国到美国的货运成本高达疫情之前的三倍，原材料价格也在春季出现了上涨。

What, if anything, can these pressures tell you about inflation to come? In order for it to stay high, such price rises will need to keep repeating, pushing up wages in turn. But the present phase could reasonably be regarded as temporary, as suppliers adjust to shifting consumer tastes. Even as economies locked down in 2020, for instance, firms quickly found new ways to source material and bottlenecks eased. The current spike would then prove transitory.

那么，上述种种压力透露了关于未来通胀的什么蛛丝马迹呢？为了让通胀维持高位，上述物价上涨就必须反复发生，并反过来推高工资水平。可如果理性看待，目前的阶段其实只是暂时的，因为针对消费偏好的变化，供应商已经在做出调整了。以2020年为例，即便在各国实施疫情封禁期间，企业也迅速找到了新的供货渠道，来缓解供应短缺。这足以说明，目前的物价飞涨只是暂时的。

Yet as the recovery proceeds, other surprises will come. The combination of a generous Treasury, a tolerant Fed and a reopening economy puts America in uncharted territory. Brace yourself for more inflation scares in the coming months.

不过，随着美国经济不断复苏，未来势必会有更多出乎意料的事情发生。在经济重启之际，财政部的大放水加上美联储对通胀的宽容态度，将美国置身于前所未有的未知境地。在接下来的几个月中，准备好迎接更多的通胀意外吧。

Source：《经济学人》2021年5月15日，财经专栏，P62页

Translated by 图书译者张翎（linda10030）

声明：本译文仅供个人翻译练习之用，可在告知本人的前提下转载分享，谢绝任何商业用途。