Reading Notes (3): 大萧条与美国地方财政

终于回来写reading note了，前两天扫了一眼五月的新issue，发现AEJ: Econ Policy在一年之内发了两篇baseline empirical result几乎一模一样的论文

Gillitzer, C. (2017). Do Output Contractions Cause Investment in Fiscal Capacity?. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9(2), 189-227. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20150161

Abstract: This paper shows that an economic slump can induce a government to invest in fscal capacity. Large negative income shocks stress the revenue-raising capability of narrow tax bases, making an increase in tax base breadth desirable relative to its fxed implementation cost. A broader tax base enables revenue to be raised at lower tax rates, and so lower deadweight loss. The behavior of US state governments during the Great Depression supports the model: states experiencing larger than average negative income shocks were more likely to adopt a retail sales tax than were states experiencing smaller than average income shocks.

2017 May这篇讲的故事是，大萧条期间收入大幅衰退，财政收入自然也随之大幅缩减，为了应对财政压力州政府不得不开拓新的税源。实证上发现1929-33年间收入下降越大的州，开征新销售税的概略越高：Each 10 percentage point fall in income between 1929 and 1933 is estimated to have raised the probability of a US state government introducing a retail sales tax in the 1930s by 10–15 percent. 作者将新税的发明理解为政府对财政能力的投资。以往关于国家能力(state capacity)的研究中，对于财政能力的解释主要关注需求侧，Besley and Persson(...)还有Dincecco and Prado (2012)等人都强调外部战争是国家投资财政能力的核心推手。这篇文章的贡献在于从宏观经济冲击的角度（相当于是供给侧）对国家财政能力投资提供了新的解释。

Coen-Pirani, D. (2018). Fiscal Centralization: Theory and Evidence from the Great Depression. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10 (2): 39-61. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20150131

Abstract: The Great Depression produced a profound and lasting influence on the structure of US government. This paper studies theoretically and empirically the increased centralization of revenues and expenditures by the states relative to local governments during this period. A model of property and sales taxation and tax delinquency is introduced. In the model, the income decline of the Depression causes a rise in property tax delinquency and leads to a shift toward sales taxation and fiscal centralization by the states. Empirical evidence based on cross-state variation in the severity of the Depression is consistent with the model's key predictions.

2018 May这篇实际说的是同一件事情，出发点是美国州级政府1930年开始在州内财政集权不断上升的现象，然后作者写了一个简单的模型，将大萧条冲击纳入加以解释：作为benevolent policy-maker的政府征收财产税和销售税来提供公共品，居民效用由消费和公共服务水平决定。假设相比销售税，用财产税为公共服务融资效率更高，但居民会根据收入水平选择财产税的逃税率（tax delinquency rate），而销售税无法逃税。大萧条应发的收入冲击使得居民财产税拖欠率上升，最大化居民效用的就会征收更多的销售税。而因为销售税是州政府征收的，自然就提高了财政集权。Reducing a state’s income growth by 1 standard deviation, or about 10 percentage points, is associated with an increase in the probability of adopting a sales tax of about 26 percentage points, and additional increase in centralization of about 2.2 percentage points for revenues and 2.3 percentage points for expenditures

两篇文章所用数据大体一样（48个州的截面数据）核心的实证结果也几乎完全一样（还都是May issue 23333），但interpretation差异很大，所引的文献也完全不是一伙的，第一篇主要归类为state capacity的研究，属于典型的political economy。第二篇大概属于聚焦美国的public economics大类。