经济学人 20180505期 Disarmagaddon 灭世阻击战 精读

Disarmageddon 灭世阻击战

Disarmageddon是The Economist造出来的一个词，由dis-和armageddon合成，armageddon源自圣经，是指毁灭性的大规模战争，disarmageddon即“防止毁灭性的大规模战争”）——来自微博@SCUT魏剑峰

Even as America tries to strike a deal with North Korea, arms control elsewhere is unravelling

strike a deal with sb.: 与某人达成协议

unravel: （把布、結或線團）解開，拆散；破壞（成就等）

尽管美国正尽力和朝鲜达成协议，其他地区的武器控制正在日益崩坏

RARELY do optimism and North Korea belong in the same breath. However, the smiles and pageantry in April’s encounter between Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-in, leaders of the two Koreas, hinted at a deal in which the North would abandon nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee from the world, and in particular America. Sadly, much as this newspaper wishes for a nuclear-free North Korea, a lasting deal remains as remote as the summit of Mount Paektu. The Kims are serial cheats and nuclear weapons are central to their grip on power (see Asia section). Moreover, even as optimists focus on Korea, nuclear restraints elsewhere are unravelling.

“乐观”和“朝鲜”这两个词极少同时出现。然而，四月朝韩两国领导人金正恩和文在寅进行了会面，两人脸上的笑容和盛大的庆典暗示着协议达成的可能，朝鲜将会放弃核武器，以此来换取国际社会——尤其是来自美国对它的安全保障。令人遗憾的是，即使本报非常希望有一个无核化的朝鲜，达成长期协议的目标依然如白头山峰那样遥不可及。金氏家族是欺骗惯犯，并且武器对他们权力的掌握也至关重要（见亚洲板）。另外，尽管人们对朝鲜问题感到乐观，其他地区的核限制正在分崩离析。

in the same breath: 同时

pageantry: 壮丽的展示，盛况，正规庆典的传统特征;

hint at: 暗示（某事）; 暗射; 暗指;

sadly: 悲哀地; 忧愁地; 令人遗憾地; 不幸地;

Mount Paektu: 白头山

长句提炼：the smiles and pageantry ( in an enounter between A and B) hinted at a deal ( in which ...)

By May 12th President Donald Trump must decide the fate of the deal struck in 2015 to curb Iran’s nuclear programme. This week Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, gave a presentation that seemed designed to get Mr Trump to pull America out. He may well oblige. Worse, within three years current agreed limits on the nuclear arsenals of Russia and America are set to lapse, leaving them unconstrained for the first time in almost half a century (see Briefing).

5月12日之前，特朗普总统必须做出决定，2015年通过的限制伊朗核力量的协定将步入何种命运。本周以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡发表了演讲，演讲内容似乎意在影响特朗普总统退出该协定。特朗普总统或许会顺水推舟。更糟糕的是，在三年内，现有针对俄罗斯及美国核武器力量限制的条约就将期满，这将让美国和俄罗斯在将近半个世纪的时间中，首次可以不受限制地发展核武器。

curb: 控制；限制，约束；抑制

Iran’s nuclear programme: 今年1月份，特朗普表示，美国将在5月12日之前做出是否“退出”伊朗核协议的决定，除非国会和欧洲盟友解决核协议中的“灾难性缺陷”。伊朗核协议是于2015年在奥巴马政府时期签订的，在联合国安理会上获得五个常任理事国的一致通过。根据该协议，伊朗同意在未来的十年内限制核计划的发展，以换取联合国解除对其长期以来的制裁。也就是说，这项协议可以在2025年前管控伊朗核力量。

Binyamin Netanyahu: 本雅明·内塔尼亚胡

lapse: 期满终止；失效；废止

长句：within three years, current agreed limits (on the nuclear arsenal os Russia | America) are set to lapse, leaving ...

In the cold war a generation of statesmen, chastened by conflict and the near-catastrophe of the Cuban missile crisis, used arms control to lessen the risk of annihilation. Even then, nuclear war was a constant fear (see Books section). Their successors, susceptible to hubris and faced with new tensions and new technology, are increasing the chances that nuclear weapons will spread and that someone, somewhere will miscalculate. A complacent world is playing with Armageddon.

冷战时期，远见卓识的政治家们接受了冲突和古巴导弹危机的教训——后者差点酝成大灾难，他们依靠武器控制来降低毁灭性战争发生的风险。即使在那时，核战争也是一个持续性的威胁（见图书部分）。而他们的继任者们却极易被自身的骄傲所影响，面对新的紧张局势、新的技术，他们做的是提高核武器传播的可能性，而某人在某地在核武器问题上判断错误的概率也提高了。整个世界在自鸣得意中与末日灾难为伴。

statesmen: （尤指具有远见卓识而受人尊敬的）政治家

chasten: 惩戒；磨炼；教训

lessen: 减少，降低，减轻

annihilation: to destroy something completely so that nothing is left

susceptible: 易受影响的，易受伤害的

hubris: 骄傲自大

miscalculate: to judge a situation badly

complacent: 自满的，自鸣得意的

句：这个对比让我想起六国论 思厥先祖父，暴霜露，斩荆棘，以有尺寸之地。子孙视之不甚惜，举以予人，如弃草芥。今日割五城，明日割十城，然后得一夕安寝。起视四境，而秦兵又至矣。 但是翻成文言文难度有点大。本段虽然没有用But, however之类的转折，但Statesmen used arm control to lessen the risk和 Successors are increasing the chances实际是有对比关系，尤其是Statesmen是含有褒义的政治家，而说到successors用了 hubris这样的贬义。倒数第二句，creasing the chances that nuclear weapons will spread and that someone, somewhere will miscalculate，这里存疑，两者到底是并列：提高（核武器传播和犯错）的机率，还是递进：提高核武器传播机率——犯错机率随传播机率的提高而提高？个人的理解选择后者。

START worrying 令人担心的新削减战略武器条约

One problem is that the critics of arms control overstate its aims so as to denigrate its accomplishments. Opponents of the Iran deal, such as John Bolton, Mr Trump’s new national security adviser, complain that it has not stopped Iran from working on ballistic missiles or from bullying its neighbours. But that was never the intent of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as it is formally known. Instead, for at least ten years, the pact cuts off Iran’s path to a bomb and makes any future attempt more likely to be detected early. Whatever Mr Netanyahu implies, Iran has kept its side of the agreement despite not getting many of the economic benefits it was promised.

一个问题是，针对武器控制的批评者们通过夸大它的目标来贬低它的成就。伊朗协定的反对者，例如特朗普的新任国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿，抱怨协议并没有中断伊朗投入到弹道导弹的工作，也没有阻止它对邻国的欺凌。但以上这些从来就不是官方名为联合全面行动计划（JCPOA）的内容。相反，在至少十年内，协定切断了伊朗大量资金的供应渠道，并更有可能尽早探测到它的未来企图。无论内塔尼亚胡在暗示什么，伊朗信守了它在协议中的立场，尽管它并未获得承诺过的经济利益。

denigrate: 贬低，诋毁

pact: 契约；条约；协定

cut off: （用锋利的刀具等）去除，切除，剪去；中断，切断（电力、物资供应等）

a bomb: a lot of money | the bomb: 原子弹

Wrecking the Iranian deal has costs. Iran would be freer to ramp up uranium enrichment, putting it once more in sight of a weapon. The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), still the best bulwark against the spread of the bomb, would be undermined: other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, may well respond by dusting off their plans to become nuclear powers; and America would be abandoning a fix that shores up the NPT. Mr Trump would have to work even harder to convince Mr Kim that he can trust America—especially as Mr Bolton compares North Korea to Libya, whose leader gave up a nuclear programme only to be toppled by the West and butchered a few years later.

破坏伊核协议需要付出代价。伊朗将会在大量加强其铀持有量上获得更多自由，它将再一次把发展武器的可能纳入视野之内；作为目前仍最行之有效保障原子弹核不扩散的手段，不扩散核武器条约（NPT）将会受到损害：该地区的其他国家，如沙特阿拉伯和埃及，很有可能会以重启自己的核大国计划作为回应。美国将废止目前NPT赖以支撑的临时修复方案，特朗普总统需要付出更多努力来说服金正恩信任美国，尤其在博尔顿将朝鲜比做利比亚的言论之后。利比亚的领导人在弃核后却被西方推翻，并在几年后惨遭杀戮。

ramp up: a large increase in activity or in the level of something

uranium: 铀

in sight of: 在…看得见的地方

Non-Proliferation: （尤指对核武器或化学武器的）不扩散，防止扩散 ~ Treaty: 不扩散核武器条约

bulwark: 保障

undermine: （常指逐渐地）削弱信心、权威等，损害

may well主要用于加强推测的语气，表示具有较大的可能性。may as well: 要用于表示提议或劝告，意为“不妨”。

dust off: （尤指长时间不用后拿出来）备好待用，整理

fix: 困境；(船只、飞机等的)定方位；贿赂；（暂时的）解决方法；理解

shore up: 支撑 to stop a wall or a building from falling down by supporting it with building materials such as wood or metal；改善，提高 to support or improve an organization, agreement, or system that is not working effectively or that is likely to fail

topple: （使）倒下,（使）倒塌；推翻（首领），颠覆（政权）

butcher：屠宰，宰杀；屠杀，杀戮

结构梳理：wrecking the deal has costs: 需要付出哪些代价——指下文的3点： Iran be freer to .../ NPT be undermined/ America abandon a fix

本段理解难点在America would be abandoning a fix that shores up the NPT一句，fix做名词“修复”时，暗含“临时方案的意思”，比喻这（指伊核协议）是支撑NPT这做大厦没有倒塌的临时粘合剂。明示的话，就是America would be abandoning the Iranian deal, which is a fix that shores up the NPT。我的理解是，鉴于伊朗威胁要退出NPT（见新闻），目前的伊核协议是把伊朗留在NPT的fix，同时这也展示了美国在核问题上的立场，如果美国废止伊核协议，那朝鲜则要重新评估美国是否值得信任。

NPT全文：http://www.un.org/chinese/peace/disarmament/t5.htm

伊朗威胁退出《不扩散核武器条约》：http://www.xinhuanet.com/mil/2018-04/25/c_129858921.htm

A second problem is mistrust, heightened since the revival of great-power competition between America and Russia after a post-Soviet lull. That ought to give arms control new urgency; instead it is eroding it. Take New START, which caps the number of strategic warheads deployed by Russia and America at 1,550 each. It will expire in 2021 unless Vladimir Putin and Mr Trump extend it, which looks unlikely. Instead Mr Trump boasts that America’s nuclear arsenal will return to the “top of the pack”, bigger and more powerful than ever before. That repudiates the logic of successive strategic-arms-control agreements with Russia since 1972, which have sought to hold back a nuclear arms race by seeking to define parity.

第二问题是缺乏信任。在度过后苏联时间间歇的宁静后，美俄之间的大国竞争再次重现，缺乏信任的问题也随之被放大。这本应给武器控制带来新的紧迫性，相反，它在逐步削弱控制。以《新削减战略武器条约》为例，该条例将美俄部署的战略核弹头数量限制在每个国家1550发。它将在2021年过期，除非弗拉基米尔·普京和特朗普总统选择延长有效期，而目前看起来不太可能。相反，特朗普吹嘘美国的核武器水平将重返“领头羊”地位，它将比过去任何时候的规模和威力都更强大。那样的说法，等于否认了自1972年起与俄罗斯达成的持续性战略武器控制条约的逻辑——通过界定均势的数量来削弱核军备竞赛。

heighten: （使）（尤指某种情绪或效果）增强，加强

lull: 平静时期；间歇

erode: 削弱；逐步破坏

warhead: （炸弹或导弹的）弹头

new START (strategic Arms Reduction Treaty): The Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms also known as the New START Treaty. 新削减战略武器条约，新条约于2010年4月8日由美国总统奥巴马和俄国总统梅德韦杰夫在捷克首都布拉格签署，故又称“布拉格条约”。与旧条约（STARTI）比较，战略核弹头保有数从6000发下降到1550发。

cap: 对（收费或花费）定限额，限制

pack: a group of animals, such as dogs, that live and/or hunt together; a group of similar people, especially one that contains people whose activities you do not approve of 指一队人，但暗指在弱肉强食的丛林法则下生存的人

repudiate: 拒绝，不接受；否认；批驳

define: 示出…的轮廓（定义）；确定…的界线（界定）

parity: （尤指薪水或职位的）同等，平等

Fix it, don’t nix it 修复，不要休止

nix: 停止；禁止；拒绝

Or take the insouciance with which the likes of Mr Bolton and his Russian counterparts condemn the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Struck in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, this deal dismantled 2,700 ground launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500km that put European deterrence on a hair-trigger. Today each side says the other is violating the INF. Mr Bolton et al argue that it is worth keeping only if it includes countries such as China—which they know will not happen.

或者以国家安全顾问博尔顿和俄罗斯类似角色之流对《中程核导弹条约》随意的谴责为例。这份条约在1987年由罗纳德·里根和米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫达成，规定将销毁2700枚射程为500到5500公里的陆基核弹，这些中短程和中程导弹使“欧洲威慑力”处于一触即发的戒备状态。如今，双方都表示对方违反了INF。博尔顿等人争辩，只有包括中国等国家在内，条约才值得维系下去，而这他们都知道并不可能。

insouciance: 无忧无虑；满不在乎

the likes of: 之类

counterparts: （与不同地方或组织的人或物）作用相同者，相对应者

ground launched nuclear missiles：陆基核导弹

dismantle: （逐渐地）废除，取消；解散

deterrence: 威慑；遏制；制止

hair-trigger: that will set off a firearm when even a very small pressure

et al: 以及其他人；等人；等等（et alia的缩写）

背景：Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: 中程核导弹条约，全称《美利坚合众国与苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟关于销毁中程和中短程导弹的条约》（英语：Treaty between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S.A. on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-range and Shorter-range Missiles)），简称《中导条约》，美国与苏联于1987年12月8日签署，是冷战这一特定历史条件下的产物，它是80年代美苏缓和时期签订的重要军备控制协定。条约规定，苏美双方将全部销毁和彻底禁止射程为５００公里至１０００公里的中短程导弹及射程为１０００公里至５０００公里的中程导弹。put European deterrence on a hair-trigger是指短程导弹对美国并不构成直接威胁，对欧洲则是战略威胁，欧洲比美国更希望实施该条约。

European deterrence: 欧洲威慑，指通过在欧洲发展核武器从而达到威慑俄罗斯的目的。

Last comes the problem of technology. Better missile defence could undermine mutually assured destruction, which creates deterrence by guaranteeing that a first strike triggers a devastating response. Speaking on March 1st, Mr Putin brandished exotic new nuclear weapons he would soon deploy to counter future American missile defences. A new nuclear arms race, with all its destabilising consequences, is thus likely. A cyber-attack to cripple the other side’s nuclear command and control, which could be interpreted as the prelude to a nuclear first strike, is another potential cause of instability in a crisis. Verifying the capabilities of software is even harder than assessing physical entities such as launchers, warheads and missile interceptors. New approaches are urgently needed. None is being contemplated.

最后一个问题是技术。更先进的导弹防御技术可以削弱共同毁灭原则的影响，这种思想指如果一方首先发起攻击，对也会以毁灭性的武力予以还击，从来达到威慑效果。普京在3月1日的演讲中挥舞着全新的核武器，兴奋并充满威胁地表示，很快他就将部署这种俄罗斯特有武器，来对抗美国未来的导弹防御。新的核武竞赛因此看来极有可能发生，尽管它会有种种破坏性后果。对另一方发动计算机攻击，使其核指令和核控制陷入瘫痪状态，这样的行为可能被解读为奏响首波核攻击的序曲。此类攻击是危机中另一个造成不稳定的潜在原由。确认对方软件方面的能力比获取物理实体方面（比如发射器、弹头、导弹截击机）的信息甚至要更难，使用新的方式去了解这些信息迫在眉睫，但现在没有任何方法在认真考虑中。

brandish: vt.威胁（或兴奋）地挥舞

exotic: 异国风情的，外国情调的；奇异的，originating in or characteristic of a distant foreign country.

counter: 反驳；反对；对抗

destabilise: 颠覆；动摇；破坏，扰乱

thus: in this way/ with this result

cripple: 使受伤致残，使跛；损坏，陷入瘫痪

prelude: 序幕，先声，前奏

interceptor: 截击机

contemplate: look thoughtfully for a long time at.

长句：A cyble-attack ( to cripple...) is another (potential) cause (of instability) (in a crisis)

背景：mutually assured destruction: 相互保证毁灭（英语: mutual Assured Destruction，简称M.A.D.机制，亦称共同毁灭原则）是一种“俱皆毁灭”性质的军事战略思想。是指对立的两方中如果有一方全面使用核武器则两方都会被毁灭，被称为“恐怖平衡”。此一思想假设双方都有足以毁灭另一方的武力，而且一方如果受到另一方攻击，不论理由为何都会以同样或更强的武力还击。预期的结果就是冲突会立刻升级到双方都保证会完全毁灭。大多假设核子大战的辐射尘与核冬天会毁灭全世界。但是这不是相互保证毁灭的基本假设。此策略进一步假设，两方都将不敢发动第一击。因为对方会在预警之后攻击，或是利用辅助的力量反击（第二击），结果双方都会毁灭。采用此策略的好处就是双方能有一种紧张但稳定的和平。支持相互保证毁灭成为美国与苏联战略思想的人认为能借此阻止核战。

exotic new nuclear weapons：3月1日电俄罗斯总统普京1日在年度国情咨文中表示，俄罗斯在2017年底成功试射了一枚配备核动力装置的导弹，这是一种全新的武器，展现了最高级别的防御。普京称：“由于射程无限，可随意进行机动调转。”

Extending New START, saving the INF, creating norms for cyber-weapons and enhancing the Iran deal are eminently doable, but only if there is sufficient will. For that to gel, today’s statesmen need to overcome a fundamental misunderstanding. They appear to have forgotten that you negotiate arms control agreements with your enemies, not your allies. And that arms control brings not just constraints on weapons of unimaginable destructive force, but also verification that provides knowledge of capabilities and intentions. In a crisis, that can reduce the risk of a fatal miscalculation.

将新削减战略武器条约延期、拯救中导条约、为信息武器制定规范，加强伊核协议都是显而易见可行的，但前提是各国有足够的意愿。如果想让这样的前景付诸行动，当今的政治家们需要克服一个基本误区。他们似乎遗忘了你是在和对手谈判武器控制条约，不是和你的盟友。并且，武器控制不仅对具有难以想像力量的毁灭性武器进行约束，也会对各方能力和意愿的信息进行确认。在危机中，这可以降低致命误判的风险。

eminently: very and obviously

doable: 可行的，可以做的

gel: （想法或局势）变得更清楚，显得更明确

Cherish the scintilla of hope in North Korea, and remember how arms control needs shoring up. The alternative is a future where countries arm themselves because they cannot be sure their enemies will not get there first; where every action could escalate into nuclear war; where early warnings of a possible attack give commanders minutes to decide whether to fire back. It would be a tragedy for the world if it took an existential scare like the Cuban missile crisis, or worse, to jolt today’s complacent, reckless leaders back to their senses.

珍惜朝鲜问题渺茫的希望吧，记住武器控制有多么需要支撑的基础。不然的话，未来可能是这样一副情景：国家都在武装自己，因为无法确保对手是否在武器上领先一步；每个行动都可能恶化为核战争；一旦收到可能发生攻击的早期预警，指挥官只有几分钟去决定是否以武力反击。如果需要发生一场堪比古巴导弹危机，或是更可怕的事件，才能靠恐慌唤醒无知无畏、沾沾自喜的领袖们，这将是整个世界的悲剧。

scintilla: 极少的，微量的

escalate: （使）增强；（使）扩大；（使）加剧；（使）恶化

existential: 有关存在的，存在主义的，存在判断的;

scare: 惊恐，恐慌;（往往不必要的）担忧；人心惶惶

jolt: （使）震动，（使）猛然摇动；使震惊

长句：It would be a tragedy for the world if it took an existential scare like the Cuban missile crisis, or worse, to jolt today’s complacent, reckless leaders back to their senses. 这句话看了我半天- -其实是拆解成It would be a tragedy for the world if 后面全部是if接的从句it took an existenail scare to jolt leaders back to their senses. 什么样的scare呢？like the Cuban missile crisis, or worse, 其中 or worse是古巴导弹危机的插入语，之前一直理解为是修饰后面的 to jolt ..

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