经济学人翻译参考：2018.4.14期L4：英国经济复苏之路慢慢

经济学人翻译参考：2018.4.14期L4：英国经济复苏之路慢慢

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Leader 4

Brittle Britain

脆弱的英国

British productivity is rising at last. But Brexit looms over the economy

生产率终于回升，然而英国经济仍然笼罩在脱欧阴云之下

On its current path, the country will remain a growth laggard

根据目前的态势，英国经济将维持一段时间的缓慢增长期。

LOW productivity growth has plagued Britain’s economy since the financial crisis. From 2010 to 2016 output per hour grew, on average, by just 0.2% a year, down from 2.5% between 1950 and 2007. In th G7 group of rich countries, only Italy has done worse. Productivity drives a country’s living standards in the long term. It is a relief, then, that the stagnation may at last be coming to an end. In the second half of 2017 productivity grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, the fastest growth since 2005.

金融危机以来，英国经济生产率持续低迷。2010年到2016年间，英国小时产值年均增速仅为0.2%，比1950年至2007年间的年均2.5%有大幅下滑。在七国集团中，也只比垫底的意大利好一些。从长期角度来讲，经济生产率是人民生活水平提升的内在动力。2017年下半年英国年生产率增至3.4%，这也是2005年以来增速最快的一年。

Accelerating productivity is the latest, and most important, piece of good news on Britain’s economy. Capital spending is improving. As a share of GDP, total investment is a percentage point above its average since the crisis. Foreign firms are readily investing. A tenth of global mergers and acquisitions announced so far in 2018 have involved a British target. Wage growthis picking upin nominal terms and, with inflation falling, real wages may soon start to grow again.

生产率加速增长是英国经济新近最重要的一则好消息。资本支出加速增长。作为GDP的组成部分之一，英国总投资在GDP中的占比高于金融危机以来的平均水平1个百分点。外资企业积极在英国寻找投资机会。2018 年年初至今，官方宣布的全球并购中，有1/10的目标企业都与英国企业存在某种联系。英国名义工资也在增长。随着通胀下滑，实际工资增速或将再次上行。

The strength of Britain’s labour market stands out. America may have a lower official unemployment rate, but nearly a fifth of people there aged between 25 and 54 are not even looking for work, meaning they are not counted in the figures. Not so in Britain, where the employment rate for this age group is 84%, among the highest of large economies.

英国劳工市场优势明显。美国官方失业率也许更低，但实际上，25至54岁的美国人当中，有近1/5的人压根就没有在找工作，这意味着他们没有被算入失业群体中。然而，与相同年龄段的美国群体相比，英国这个群体的就业率高达84%，在大国中位居榜首。

Inevitably in a country still riven bythe referendum decision to leave the European Union, Britain’s economic performanceis analysed through the prism of Brexit.Those in favour of leaving the EU gleefully recall predictions, made by the Treasury and others, of a collapse in confidence after the referendum, and then a recession. Not only have those forecasts proved wrong but, some Brexiteers say, Brexit may actually be helping the economy. On their view, productivity is rising because falling net migration from Europe has led to a tighter labour market, spurring firms to find ways to do more with less.

当然，在这个因退欧公投造成内部分裂的国家。人们对脱欧后的经济表现的分析也必然各执己见。支持脱欧的人还会欢快地记得财政部及相关部门的预测，即英国将在公投后信心崩溃，继而引发经济衰退。现在不但这些预测已经被事实击碎，一些脱欧支持者甚至认为脱欧会促进英国经济发展。他们的逻辑是，脱欧后来自欧洲的净移民减少将致使英国劳工市场人力紧张，迫使英国企业用较少的资源做更多工作。

Too soon to celebrate

庆祝还为时过早

Not so fast. The reasons for the rise in productivity are not yet clear (see article). But there are two ways in which the recent economic news must be put into perspective.

这不可能立竿见影。英国生产率提高的原由尚不明确(详见文章)，不过英国近期的经济数据可以有两种客观解读。

The first is that the aftermath of the referendum has coincided witha broad,sustained rise in global growth. Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that Britain’s economy has performed better than anticipated. It has nonetheless slowed. The economy grew by only 1.4% in the year to the end of 2017, down from 2% a year earlier. And it has slipped sharply relative to others. Not long ago Britain had the fastest growth in the G7 group of rich countries. Now it has the slowest. Comparing Britain’s growth with that of the world economy, one estimate puts the running cost of Brexit at 1.3% of GDP, or £300m ($426m) a week. Had the global economic cycle not turned in 2017, some of the more blood-curdling forecasts made before the referendum might not have looked quite so silly.

首先，英国脱欧后恰逢全球经济大范围持续增长。在这种背景下，英国经济表现超过预期，并不令人意外。然而，英国经济增速已经趋缓，2017年全年经济年增长率仅为1.4%，低于上一年度同期2%的增幅。相较于其他国家，英国经济增长可谓是大幅下滑。不久前英国经济增速还是七国集团的头羊，而今已跌至末位。可以将英国经济增长与世界经济相比，有个模型表示，英国脱欧的启动成本是GDP减少1.3%，即每周3亿英镑（合4.25亿美元）。要不是全球经济周期在2017年发生逆转，公投前一些更加耸人听闻的预测听起来就不那么离谱了。

Second, the biggest downside to Brexit was never going to be immediate economic pain. If Britain leaves the single market and customs union in an orderly manner, the short-term shock should be manageable. But there is still the swingeing cost to longer-term growth from higher trade barriers. Firms selling tothe continentwill gradually cut Britain out of their supply chains. Britain’s workers and capital will have to be redirected to produce things that previously were imported more cheaply. Britain’s exports to Europe will cost more. With free movement curtailed, it will be harder for knowledge to flow across borders. The economy will be less efficient.

其次，脱欧的最大问题从来就不是即时的经济阵痛，如果英国可以有序退出欧洲单一市场和关税同盟，短期的冲击应该是可控的。然而，更高的贸易壁垒从长期角度来讲会带来极大成本。而面向欧洲大陆的出口企业将逐渐把英国从供应链中删除。英国工人和资本将被动调整，他们将被迫去生产那些原先可以低价进口的。并且面向欧洲的出口成本也会增加。随着自由贸易被阻隔，知识的跨境交流将变得缓慢，英国经济的效率也会降低。

Brexiteers retort that economists have been proved wrong once and will be proved wrong again. Yet the profession is much better at predicting trade flows than it is at guessing how investors will respond to events. Few economic models have had as much success in explaining the real world as the one saying that as distance between trading partners doubles, trade flows fall by roughly half. There is no replacement forfrictionless trade with a single market of 450m people on Britain’s doorstep, whatever the government’s hopes for trade deals with countries, like America, that are oceans away.

脱欧支持者反驳说经济学家错误判断了脱欧后的经济形势，而且他们也会一错再错。相较于揣摩投资者对事件的反应，经济学家更善于预测贸易流向。有一个经济学模型取得了罕见的成功，它的理论是：贸易伙伴之间的距离如果翻倍，贸易流动将减少一半左右。无论与美国等国的贸易协定内容多么理想，英国政府再也找不到欧洲单一市场这个家门口4.5亿体量的自由贸易合作伙伴，更何况与美国还远隔大西洋。

Reliable trade models predict long-term losses from Brexit of up to 10% of GDP, depending on how it is conducted. According to analysis by civil servants, even if Britain retained tariff-free access to the single market and maintained free movement of people, as Norway does, the eventual hit to GDP per person could be as high as 2.6%—enough to undo its growth during 2017 almost three times over.

据权威贸易模型推测，英国脱欧的长期损失将占GDP的10％，具体损失取决于脱欧的路径选择。据文职人员分析，即便英国像挪威一样保留单一市场的关税减免权并保持人员自由流动，人均GDP损失可能仍高达2.6％ ，这相当于2017年GDP增长值的三倍左右。

In theory, investment could boost productivity enough to outweigh the effect of lost trade. Policymakers are, slowly, getting some things right. Government investment, as a share of GDP, may soon reach its highest sustained level for 40 years. Philip Hammond, the chancellor of the exchequer, is saying some sensible things about solving Britain’s housing shortage.

理论上来说，增加投资可以提高生产率，来弥补脱欧流失的贸易。政策制定者终于慢慢找到了门路。政府投资占GDP的比重将很快达到40年以来新高。英国财政大臣菲利普哈蒙德近期在解决英国住房短缺问题上的思路就很对。

Yet the government is walking down a train that is speeding in the opposite direction. The effects of merely tinkering with policy will be of a different order of magnitude to those of upending Britain’s trading relationships with its neighbours. For productivity, as for so much else, how Brexit is conducted is the thing that matters most.

然而，政府正在一个加速后退的列车上费力往车头方向前行。只是不断修补政策可能影响甚微，将英国和邻国贸易关系推到重来则可能伤筋动骨。生产率问题与其他事项的逻辑类似，退欧的路径怎么走才是最关键的。

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