经济学人翻译参考：2017.9.2期L1：气候变化-洪水猛兽！

Leaders1
How to cope with flood
如何应对洪水问题
The to-do list goes far beyond getting to grips with climate change
我们要做的不仅仅是控制气候变化
THE extent of the devastation will become clear only when the floodwater recedes, leaving ruined cars, filthy mud-choked houses and the bloated corpses of the drowned. But as we went to press, with the rain pounding South Texas for the sixth day, Hurricane Harvey had already set records as America’s most severe deluge. In Houston it drenched Harris County in over 4.5trn litres of water in just 100 hours—enough rainfall to cover an eight-year-old child.
只有当洪水退去，损毁的车辆、淤泥堆积的房屋和溺水者肿胀的尸体显露出来，我们才能清楚地了解这场灾难的破坏力有多大。但在本期《经济学人》付印之时，飓风“哈维”已给德克萨斯州南部多地带来持续六日强降水，造成了美国有史以来最严重的洪涝灾害。仅100小时，休斯顿哈里斯县的水量就上涨至4.5万亿升，水深足够淹没一名八岁的儿童。
The fate of America’s fourth-largest city holds the world’s attention, but it is hardly alone. In India, Bangladesh and Nepal, at least 1,200 people have died and millions have been left homeless by this year’s monsoon floods. Last month torrential rains caused a mudslide in Sierra Leone that killed over 1,000—though the exact toll will never be known. Around the world, governments are grappling with the threat from floods. This will ultimately be about dealing with climate change. Just as important, is correcting short-sighted government policy and the perverse incentives that make flooding worse.
休斯顿的灾情引起了全世界的关注，但这绝非个例。今年，在印度、孟加拉国和尼泊尔，至少有1200人死于季风气候带来的洪涝灾害，数百万人流离失所。上月，塞拉利昂因暴雨引发泥石流，造成逾1000人死亡，而确切的伤亡数据可能将永远无法得知。世界各国政府如今都在与洪水造成的威胁作斗争，而该问题的解决方案最终还是会回到应对气候变化上来。但纠正政府的短视政策以及不恰当的刺激政策同样重要，正是它们加剧了洪涝灾害。
Judgment day
审判日
The overwhelming good news is that storms and flooding have caused far fewer deaths in recent decades, thanks to better warning systems and the construction of levees, ditches and shelters. The cyclone that struck Bangladesh in 1970 killed 300,000-500,000 people; the most recent severe one, in 2007, killed 4,234. The bad news is that storms and floods still account for almost three-quarters of weather-related disasters, and they are becoming more common. According to the Munich Re, a reinsurer, their number around the world has increased from about 200 in 1980 to over 600 last year. Harvey was the third “500-year” storm to strike Houston since 1979.
令人欢欣鼓舞的是，近几十年来，由于预警机制的完善，堤坝、排水渠以及避风设施的建设，风暴、洪水造成的死亡人数大大减少。1970年，袭击孟加拉国的旋风造成30万至50万人死亡；而最近的一次强旋风（2007年）导致的死亡人数为4234人。坏消息是，风暴和洪水仍约占气象灾害的四分之三，且它们正在变得更加频繁。慕尼黑再保险公司（Munich Re）显示，风暴和洪水的数量已经由1980年的200起左右上升至2016年的600多起。而袭击休斯顿的哈维飓风是1979年以来第三次“500年一遇”的特大飓风。
At the same time, floods and storms are also becoming more costly. By one estimate, three times as many people were living in houses threatened by hurricanes in 2010 as in 1970, and the number is expected to grow as still more people move to coastal cities. The UN reckons that, in the 20 years to 2015, storms and floods caused $1.7trn of destruction; the World Health Organisation estimates that, in real terms, the global cost of hurricane damage is rising by 6% a year. Flood losses in Europe are predicted to increase fivefold by 2050.
同时，洪水及风暴造成的经济损失也越来越大。据估计，相较于1970年，2012年受飓风威胁的住户数量上升了两倍。由于迁往沿海城市的人数增多，这一数字还将进一步增长。据联合国估算，1995年到2015年，风暴和洪水造成的经济损失为1.7万亿美元；据世界卫生组织估计，飓风在全球造成的实际经济损失正以每年6%的速度上涨。到2050年，洪水对欧洲造成的损失将是现在的6 倍。
One cause is global warming. The frequency and severity of hurricanes vary naturally—America has seen unusually few in the past decade. Yet the underlying global trend is what you would expect from climate change. Warmer seas evaporate faster and warmer air can hold more water vapour, which releases energy when it condenses inside a weather system, feeding the violence of storms and the intensity of deluges. Rising sea levels, predicted to be especially marked in the Gulf of Mexico, exacerbate storm surges, adding to the flooding. Harvey was unusually devastating because it suddenly gained strength before it made landfall on Friday; it then stayed put, dumping its rain on Houston before returning to the Gulf. Again, that is consistent with models of a warmer world.
全球气候变暖是原因之一。飓风的频率及强度在不停地变换——过去十年，美国几乎没有遭受飓风袭击。但是，气候变化情况的确反映了潜在的全球趋势。海水温度升高导致蒸发加快，温暖的空气能够容纳更多的水蒸气，水蒸气遇冷凝结后释放大量能量，进而加剧了风暴和洪水的强度。海平面的上升（据估计，墨西哥湾海平面上升将尤为显著）会带来更多更严重的风暴，增加了洪水的威胁。飓风“哈维”破坏力异常之大，是因为其威力在周五登陆前突然加强；在返回墨西哥湾前，飓风“哈维”停留在休斯顿并带来持续降雨。这一现象与全球气候变暖模型也是一致的。
Poor planning bears even more blame. Houston, which has almost no restrictions on land-use, is an extreme example of what can go wrong. Although a light touch has enabled developers to cater to the city’s rapid growth—1.8m extra inhabitants since 2000—it has also led to concrete being laid over vast areas of coastal prairie that used to absorb the rain. According to the Texas Tribune and ProPublica, a charity that finances investigative journalism, since 2010 Harris County has allowed more than 8,600 buildings to be put up inside 100-year floodplains, where floods have a 1% chance of occurring in any year. Developers are supposed to build ponds to hold run-off water that would have soaked into undeveloped land, but the rules are poorly enforced. Because the maps are not kept up to date, properties supposedly outside the 100-year floodplain are being flooded repeatedly.
而糟糕的城市规划是更为主要的原因。休斯顿几乎毫不限制土地利用，是城市管理不善的一大极端案例。2000年以来，休斯顿新增人口180万。宽松的监管一方面使开发商能够满足城市的扩张需求，但另一方面也导致原本用于吸收雨水的海岸草原上大兴土木。根据《田纳西论坛报》和公益性新闻媒体ProPublica的调查，自2010年起，哈里斯县在有百年历史的洪泛区新建了8600多栋房屋，这些地方每年爆发洪水的几率为1%。开发商本该建造水塘来容纳那些本应由未开发土地吸收的地表雨水，但这些规则并没有很好地执行。由于洪水模拟图未能及时得到更新，那些本应建于百年洪泛区外的房屋多次被洪水淹没。
Government failure adds to the harm. Developing countries are underinsured against natural disasters. Swiss Re, a reinsurer, says that of the $50bn or so of losses to floods, cyclones and other disasters in Asia in 2014, only 8% were covered. The Bank of International Settlements calculates that the worst natural catastrophes typically permanently lower the afflicted country’s GDP by almost 2%. America has the opposite problem—the federal government subsidises the insurance premiums of vulnerable houses. The National Flood Insurance Programme (NFIP) has been forced to borrow because it fails to charge enough to cover its risk of losses. Underpricing encourages the building of new houses and discourages existing owners from renovating or moving out. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, houses that repeatedly flood account for 1% of NFIP’s properties but 25-30% of its claims. Five states, Texas among them, have more than 10,000 such households and, nationwide, their number has been going up by around 5,000 each year. Insurance is meant to provide a signal about risk; in this case, it stifles it.
政府的失策更令灾情雪上加霜。发展中国家很少为资产投保自然灾害险。瑞士再保险公司称，2014年亚洲的洪水、台风等自然灾害造成了500亿美元左右的经济损失，其中只有8%的资产投了保。据国际清算银行（the Bank of International Settlements）统计，最严重的自然灾害将受灾国家的国民生产总值永久性地拉低了两个百分点。美国的情况则完全相反，美国联邦政府为脆弱的建筑提供保险补贴。由于没有足够的资金补偿灾害损失，美国国家洪水保险项目（the National Flood Insurance Programme，简称NFIP）被迫借款。过低的估价激励人们建造更多新房，也打消了现有住户想要翻新或者搬出的念头。美国联邦应急管理署（the Federal Emergency Management Agency）显示，反复遭受洪灾的房屋数量仅占国家洪水保险计划投保的百分之一，但却占到赔偿金的25%到30%。包括德克萨斯州在内的五个州有超过一万户长期受洪灾威胁的住户，在全美，该数字正以每年5000的速度上涨。保险本应为人们提供风险信号；而此时，它起到完全相反的作用。
Mend the roof while the sun shines
未雨绸缪
What to do? Flooding strengthens the case for minimizing climate change, which threatens to make wet places wetter and storms stormier. Even those who doubt the science// would do well to see action as an insurance policy that pays out if the case is proven. However, that will not happen fast, even if all countries, including America, sign up to international agreements. More immediately, therefore, politicians can learn from Houston. Cities need to protect flood defences and catchment areas, such as the wetlands around Kolkata and the lakes in and around Pokhara in Nepal, whose value is becoming clear. Flood maps need to be up to date. Civil engineers, often starved of funds and strangled by bureaucracy, should be building and reinforcing levees and reservoirs now, before it is too late. The NFIP should start to charge market premiums and developing countries should sell catastrophe bonds. All this is a test of government, of foresight and the ability to withstand the lobbying of homeowners and developers. But politicians and officials who fail the test need to realise that, sooner or later, they will wake up to a Hurricane Harvey of their own.
既然如此，各国应该如何应对？气候变化加剧了自然灾害，洪水再次证明了控制气候变化刻不容缓。即使不相信这一点的人也最好购买保险，因为若是情况果真如此，保险可以补偿他们的损失。即便包括美国在内的所有国家都签署了国际协定，气候变化也不会迅速解决。眼下，政府官员可以先从休斯顿的灾害中吸取教训，保护防洪设施以及集水区，如：加尔各答附近的湿地，尼泊尔博卡拉的湖泊——它们的防洪作用一目了然。洪水模拟图要实时更新。趁现在还来得及，经常资金匮乏且饱受官员压制的土木工程师应当立刻修建、加固堤坝和水库。美国国家洪水保险计划应该收取更高溢价，而发展中国家则应该发售自然灾害债券。这一切都是在考验一个政府的预见性以及说服业主和开发商的能力。但是，未能通过考验的官员要能意识到，他们迟早会被自己的暴风雨哈维叫醒。
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