lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect
Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
forecast
rain has been forecast for tomorrow
The economist forecasted the economy will grow 8% this year.
predict / foretell
He predicted / foretold that the improvement will continue
Timely snow foretells a bumper harvest.
forebode 预示着不好的东西
Black clouds forebode a storm.
prophesy宗教中的预言
Jesus prophesied that one of his disciples门生 would betray him.
speculative 推测的，投机的
based on guessing, not on information or facts 略有贬义
His conclusions are pure speculative.
speculative investments投机性的投资
speculate v.1.猜测
We can only speculate on the reasons for his sudden resignation.
v.2投机
speculate in stocks
speculation 猜测，推测，投机
conjecture
=guesswork / guess work;
property speculation房地产投机
bizzard n. severe snowstorm暴雪
thunderstorm snowstorm
windstorm 大风暴 sandstorm沙尘暴
squall 突然扬起的大风 dust devil 小的尘旋风
cyclone 特大的暴风
hurricane 大西洋西海岸的飓风
typhoon 太平洋的西海岸
tornado 龙卷风
deteriorate vi
Alan's health has deteriorated.恶化
America's deterioration economy
deteriorate into ... 恶化成了……
The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
写作中的替换
degenerate
Our relationship has degenerated over the years.
degenerate into ...
Don't allow your comments degenerated / deteriorate into a personal attack.
worsen
The weather worsened during the night.
get worse
go from bad to worse
go downhill
Moving in together was a mistake, and our relationship rapidly went downhill / degenerated / deteriorated / worsened / went from bad to worse.
turbulent adj. air or water moving violently and unevenly
turbulent waves
大多数用作派生意 动荡的
the turbulent times of the French Revolution
turbulence 气流水流的不稳定 动荡，骚乱
political turbulence
social turbulence
"turb" = disturb 搅乱
turbid水底的泥沙搅起来 turbine涡轮 perturb不安
Mother was perturbed by my illness
imperturbable镇定的冷静沉着的
humidity
humid 潮湿的（空气）
humid air / atmosphere
humid summer nights
wet
Her hands were wet.
a wet sponge
damp贬义词，让人难受的 / moist褒义的
a cold, damp collar
Bring me a moist towel.
meteorologist
meteorology 气象学家，气象学
meteor 流星 = shooting / falling star
meteor 在古代英语中表示气象
meteor shower 流星雨
meteor swarm 流星群
meteorite 陨石
asteroid 小行星
deviation n. 偏差，偏离常轨
n. a difference from what is expected or acceptable
Left deviation 左倾
Right deviation 右倾
sexual deviation 性变态
介词搭配：~ from
Any deviation from the party's faith is seem as betrayal.
deviate from ...
deviate form one's plan / principles
deviant 偏离常轨的人，变态者
a sexual deviant
viable a ~ proposal
economically viable
obviate 排除，消除
The new treatment obviates / eliminate the need for surgery.
The butterfly effect
madame butterfly 蝴蝶夫人
a social butterfly 交际花，在社交上左右逢源的女人
have botterflies (in one's stomach)
忐忑不安，特别紧张
It was the morning of the World Cup Final and most of the players had butterflies (in their stomach)
chaos theory混沌理论
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
beyond after||later than...||exceeding
are based on speculation / conjecture / guesswork / guess work
worthless / valueless / useless / of no earthly use / totally useless
The Butterfly Effect is the reason.
be the reason(for / behind) it.
是……的原因
The Butterfly Effect accounts for it.
The Butterfly Effect underlies it.
The reason is the Butterfly Effect.
×the reason is !because of xxxxx
For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.
for & to 对于 可以替换
mean v. be likely to result in ...
The merger will mean the eventual closure of the company's Shanghai Office.
... any prediction gets worse / degenerates / becomes inaccurate rapidly.
Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
multiply 迅速增加
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.
grid n. a pattern of straight lines that cross each other to form squares
streets laid out on a grid pattern
of / in / on the order of = approximately
The house cost him something on / in / of the order $200,000.
The house cost him something in the neighborhood / vicinity of $200,000.
The house cost him approximately $200,000
starting adj.beginning
initial
at the initial stage / phase
v. 签上姓名首字母
incipient 初始的最初的
incipient tumor
the incipient light of day 曙光
opening 歌剧什么最开始的
his opening remarks
the opening scene of the movie
preliminary
a preliminary exam / contest 预考，预选赛
But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.
space v. 将……均匀隔开
Space your workouts two days apart to avoid sore muscles.
Bean plants should be spaced three inches apart.
interval n. 两件事中的间隔时间
and by measuring the time interval between the taps and the receipt of the echoes ……
n2间隔空间
They planted trees in the intervals between the houses.
all the way 一直……
He ran all the way home.
He climbed all the way up the tree.
Eventually the turtle has been butted all the way down to the floor of the tank.
Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.
reading 读数
take the meter reading 查表，取走读数
=read the meter
Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12:01, then 12:02, then 12:03...
at high noon 正午时分
at 12 o'clock sharp
at punctually 12 o'clock
infinite
The universe is infinite
finite
Human knowledge if finite
infinitive动词不定式
definite
indefinite
an indefinite answer
definitive最终的最后的最好的
a definitive verdict最好的，最终的
计算
work out
compute
figure out
reckon
The inflation is reckoned to be 10%.
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.
At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.
By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.
Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
... will have multiplied to ...
... will have proliferated to ...
... will have recketed to ...
... will have soared to ...
on a small scale
on a limited scale
on a large / grand scale
on a / an colossal / enormous / gigantic scale
on a national / nationwide scale
on a / an global / international / world / worldwide scale
and so on
and so forth
etc.(et cetera)
and the like
and what not诸如此类
global size
global scale
international / world / worldwide scale
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 1202, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
forecast
rain has been forecast for tomorrow
The economist forecasted the economy will grow 8% this year.
predict / foretell
He predicted / foretold that the improvement will continue
Timely snow foretells a bumper harvest.
forebode 预示着不好的东西
Black clouds forebode a storm.
prophesy宗教中的预言
Jesus prophesied that one of his disciples门生 would betray him.
speculative 推测的，投机的
based on guessing, not on information or facts 略有贬义
His conclusions are pure speculative.
speculative investments投机性的投资
speculate v.1.猜测
We can only speculate on the reasons for his sudden resignation.
v.2投机
speculate in stocks
speculation 猜测，推测，投机
conjecture
=guesswork / guess work;
property speculation房地产投机
bizzard n. severe snowstorm暴雪
thunderstorm snowstorm
windstorm 大风暴 sandstorm沙尘暴
squall 突然扬起的大风 dust devil 小的尘旋风
cyclone 特大的暴风
hurricane 大西洋西海岸的飓风
typhoon 太平洋的西海岸
tornado 龙卷风
deteriorate vi
Alan's health has deteriorated.恶化
America's deterioration economy
deteriorate into ... 恶化成了……
The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
写作中的替换
degenerate
Our relationship has degenerated over the years.
degenerate into ...
Don't allow your comments degenerated / deteriorate into a personal attack.
worsen
The weather worsened during the night.
get worse
go from bad to worse
go downhill
Moving in together was a mistake, and our relationship rapidly went downhill / degenerated / deteriorated / worsened / went from bad to worse.
turbulent adj. air or water moving violently and unevenly
turbulent waves
大多数用作派生意 动荡的
the turbulent times of the French Revolution
turbulence 气流水流的不稳定 动荡，骚乱
political turbulence
social turbulence
"turb" = disturb 搅乱
turbid水底的泥沙搅起来 turbine涡轮 perturb不安
Mother was perturbed by my illness
imperturbable镇定的冷静沉着的
humidity
humid 潮湿的（空气）
humid air / atmosphere
humid summer nights
wet
Her hands were wet.
a wet sponge
damp贬义词，让人难受的 / moist褒义的
a cold, damp collar
Bring me a moist towel.
meteorologist
meteorology 气象学家，气象学
meteor 流星 = shooting / falling star
meteor 在古代英语中表示气象
meteor shower 流星雨
meteor swarm 流星群
meteorite 陨石
asteroid 小行星
deviation n. 偏差，偏离常轨
n. a difference from what is expected or acceptable
Left deviation 左倾
Right deviation 右倾
sexual deviation 性变态
介词搭配：~ from
Any deviation from the party's faith is seem as betrayal.
deviate from ...
deviate form one's plan / principles
deviant 偏离常轨的人，变态者
a sexual deviant
viable a ~ proposal
economically viable
obviate 排除，消除
The new treatment obviates / eliminate the need for surgery.
The butterfly effect
madame butterfly 蝴蝶夫人
a social butterfly 交际花，在社交上左右逢源的女人
have botterflies (in one's stomach)
忐忑不安，特别紧张
It was the morning of the World Cup Final and most of the players had butterflies (in their stomach)
chaos theory混沌理论
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
beyond after||later than...||exceeding
are based on speculation / conjecture / guesswork / guess work
worthless / valueless / useless / of no earthly use / totally useless
The Butterfly Effect is the reason.
be the reason(for / behind) it.
是……的原因
The Butterfly Effect accounts for it.
The Butterfly Effect underlies it.
The reason is the Butterfly Effect.
×the reason is !because of xxxxx
For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly.
for & to 对于 可以替换
mean v. be likely to result in ...
The merger will mean the eventual closure of the company's Shanghai Office.
... any prediction gets worse / degenerates / becomes inaccurate rapidly.
Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
multiply 迅速增加
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.
grid n. a pattern of straight lines that cross each other to form squares
streets laid out on a grid pattern
of / in / on the order of = approximately
The house cost him something on / in / of the order $200,000.
The house cost him something in the neighborhood / vicinity of $200,000.
The house cost him approximately $200,000
starting adj.beginning
initial
at the initial stage / phase
v. 签上姓名首字母
incipient 初始的最初的
incipient tumor
the incipient light of day 曙光
opening 歌剧什么最开始的
his opening remarks
the opening scene of the movie
preliminary
a preliminary exam / contest 预考，预选赛
But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.
space v. 将……均匀隔开
Space your workouts two days apart to avoid sore muscles.
Bean plants should be spaced three inches apart.
interval n. 两件事中的间隔时间
and by measuring the time interval between the taps and the receipt of the echoes ……
n2间隔空间
They planted trees in the intervals between the houses.
all the way 一直……
He ran all the way home.
He climbed all the way up the tree.
Eventually the turtle has been butted all the way down to the floor of the tank.
Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.
reading 读数
take the meter reading 查表，取走读数
=read the meter
Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12:01, then 12:02, then 12:03...
at high noon 正午时分
at 12 o'clock sharp
at punctually 12 o'clock
infinite
The universe is infinite
finite
Human knowledge if finite
infinitive动词不定式
definite
indefinite
an indefinite answer
definitive最终的最后的最好的
a definitive verdict最好的，最终的
计算
work out
compute
figure out
reckon
The inflation is reckoned to be 10%.
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.
At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average.
By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.
Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
... will have multiplied to ...
... will have proliferated to ...
... will have recketed to ...
... will have soared to ...
on a small scale
on a limited scale
on a large / grand scale
on a / an colossal / enormous / gigantic scale
on a national / nationwide scale
on a / an global / international / world / worldwide scale
and so on
and so forth
etc.(et cetera)
and the like
and what not诸如此类
global size
global scale
international / world / worldwide scale
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