宏观(研报类)1.12
Charles Goodhart--未来是高通胀时代inflation trap [long term]
1.negative supply shock--人口结构改变,适龄劳动力减少(东欧、中国),非洲的年轻劳动力帮不上忙(内战,难以组成非洲联盟).
2.positive demand shock--老龄阶段消费比年轻时高
1+2=价格上涨
3.中央银行无法有效控制通胀--国债多,利率已经很低,增税阻力大因此不可能,政府将有意通过通胀减轻债务负担.
Louis Gave--Inflation will come back with a vengeance [short term]
1. three key prices(美国): Ten year Treasury yields, oil, dollar--a huge reversal
十年前yields⬇️oil⬆️dollar⬆️ 现在yields⬆️oil⬇️dollar⬇️
(国债)利率⬆️货币⬇️ 是sick emerging market的表现,投资者对美国政府政策不满意
1)debt built up by $4 trillion(world record) but zero new productive investments ("they were basically just sending money to people to sit at home and watch TV")
2)raise the cost of funding for the government--rise interest rates, devaluation of currency, 因此fed可能cap interest rate,这将继续造成美元贬值
3)gold可能涨价:如果fed cap interest rate, real interest rate drops
4)dollar过去为何bull market: shale oil revolution使得美国能源独立,trade deficit减少,一度不再export dollar,因此dollar升值;然而covid带来的全球生产力shock将使得oil price goes down,美元将因此贬值[核心逻辑是,美国生产shale oil需要huge capex,且需要维持很高的油价才能不赔本;若油价低,则美国不会生产,只能进口原油,这相当于出口美元,美元供给增加,贬值]
2. why inflation:
1)policy change--strong RMB (bull)--inflation;
历史上凡是financial crisis,中国会freeze exchange rate; 今年却任其升值--policy change
中国等亚洲国家并没有monetize a lot during Covid shock, 所以货币会相对升值(revaluation)
由于china is the world factory, strong RMB drives price up--inflation for the whole world
2)regulation(e.g.Huawei)--broken supply chain --productivity shock--inflation
3)central banks print money
3.semiconductor industry
1)commodity of the future, more important than energy(夸张?)
2)Taiwan--the future Saudi Arabia--the battleground between US and China
