全世界请小心，欧盟正面临有史以来最严重的经济衰退。
The European Union Is Facing Its Worst Recession Ever. Watch Out, World.
全世界请小心，欧盟正面临有史以来最严重的经济衰退。
New forecasts predict a 7.4 percent economic collapse and risks of even worse decline if the reopening triggers a second virus wave.
新的预测显示，如果复工会引发疫情的二次爆发，经济将会下滑7.4%，届时将面临更大的金融风险
The Louvre, in Paris, during lockdown.
封国令期间的巴黎卢浮宫
ByMatina Stevis-GridneffandJack Ewing
作者：Matina Stevis-Gridneff 和 Jack Ewing
BRUSSELS — The good news for Europe is that the worst of the pandemic is beginning to ease. This week deaths in Italy hit a nearly two-month low. And the German leaderAngela Merkel announcedthat schools, day care centers and restaurants would reopen in the next few days.
布鲁塞尔——对于欧洲而言，好消息就是疫情最严重的阶段已经过去了，一切都在往好的方向发展。本周，意大利的死亡人数降至近两个月来的最低点。德国总理默克尔宣布，学校、日托中心和餐馆将在未来几天重新开放。
But the relief could be short-lived.
但这种缓解可能是暂时的。
The European Commission released projections on Wednesday that Europe’s economy will shrink by 7.4 percent this year. A top official told residents of the European Union, first formed in the aftermath of the Second World War, to expect the “deepest economic recession in its history.”
欧盟委员会(European Commission)周三公布的预测显示，欧洲经济今年将下滑7.4%。欧盟在第二次世界大战后成立，一位高级官员告诉告诉公众，欧盟将面临“历史上最严重的经济衰退”。
To put this figure in perspective, the 27-nation bloc’s economy had been predicted to grow by 1.2 percent this year. In 2009, at the back of the global financial crisis, it shrank by 4.5 percent.
为了便于理解，我们可以看到，欧盟27国的经济今年预计增长1.2%。2009年，在全球金融危机的背景下，它缩水了4.5%。
It’s a grim reminder that even if the virus dissipates, the economic fallout could pressure the world economy for months, if not years.
这是一个很严峻的问题：即使疫情结束，经济上造成的损失也可能将会给世界经济的复苏带来数月甚至是数年的压力。
In China, where the outbreak has subsided in recent weeks, the factories that power the global supply chain have been fired up. But with few global buyers for its goods, its economy has been slow to recover.
在最近几周，对于疫情有所缓解的中国而言，为全球提供供应的很多工厂都已经复工，但鉴于订单寥寥无几，中国的经济复苏也进程缓慢。
In the United States, where the growth of new cases in the hardest-hit areas shows signs of slowing and there is a push to lift lockdowns, there are also signs that a recovery may be elusive. The government on Friday is set to release themonthly employment report, and some forecasts predict a loss of more than 20 million jobs in April — a number that would wipe out a decade’s worth of job gains.
在美国，受疫情影响最为严重的地区的新增病例增长出现了放缓的迹象，人们纷纷要求复工，重新开放。但也有迹象表明，这一切可能难以实现。政府周五将公布月度就业报告，一些人预计4月将减少逾2,000万个就业岗位，这一数字将抹去过去10年新增的就业岗位。
The European Union, home to 440 million people,is the United States’ No. 1 trading partner, and China’s second-largest. It’s the biggest foreign investor in sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the developing world.
拥有4.4亿人口的欧盟是美国的第一大贸易伙伴，也是中国的第二大贸易伙伴。它是撒哈拉以南非洲和其他发展中国家最大的外国投资商。
A prolonged European recession, a second wave of the virus or an anemic economic recovery would spell added misery for many Europeans, and hurt companies, banks and people the world over. The crisis is also reigniting political divisions between a wealthier north and a poorer south, threatening to break the brittle balance between divergent nations with inextricably linked economies.
欧洲经济持续衰退，或将面临第二波疫情爆发风险，经济复苏缓慢且乏力。这一切都将给欧洲人民带来更多的痛苦，并给全球的企业、银行和民众带来伤害。
A nearly deserted piazza in Milan.
一个位于米兰的几乎空无一人的广场
A recovery will probably start unevenly in the second half of the year, Paolo Gentiloni, European commissioner for economy, said at a news conference after the release of the forecast, which comes out four times a year. But by the end of 2021 the countries of the European Union will be in worse shape than they were just two months ago, before the coronavirus started ripping through the continent.U.S. gross domestic productfell at a 4.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and some economists believe it will contract at an annual rate of 30 percent or more in the current quarter.
欧盟经济事务专员保罗•真蒂洛尼(Paolo Gentiloni)在上述预测发布后的新闻发布会上表示，经济复苏很有可能将在今年下半年陆续开始，这样的预测一年将发布四次。但到2021年底，欧盟国家的情况将比两个月前更糟，那时冠状病毒还没有开始肆虐欧洲大陆。美国第一季国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率为下降4.8%，一些分析师认为，当季GDP环比年率将下降30%或更多。
“The danger of a deeper and more protracted recession is very real,” the head of the commission’s economic unit, Maarten Verwey, said in the forecast’s foreword.
欧盟委员会经济部门的负责人Maarten Verwey预测道:“更严重、更持久的衰退的危险是非常可能的。”
A resurgence of the virus after the end of lockdowns would shave a further 3 percentage points off economic performance this year, he said. The economies of Italy and Spain, two of the countries hardest hit by the disease, will most likely shrink by over 9 percent each this year, and Italy’s economy will be particularly slow to recover, Mr. Gentiloni said. Greece, which had started turning a corner after a decade of economic calamity, will be worst-hit in the union, according to the forecasts, losing 9.7 of its economic output this year. Poland would suffer the least, with a 4.5 percent recession.
他表示，若在解除封锁令后，倘若疫情再度大面积爆发，今年的经济数据将再下降3个百分点。根蒂洛尼说，意大利和西班牙是疫情最严重的两个国家，它们的经济数据今年很可能会各自下降9%以上，意大利的经济复苏将尤其缓慢。根据预测，在经历了10年的经济灾难后开始重新好转的希腊，是欧盟所有国家中遭受打击最大的。今年将会失去9.7%的经济产出。波兰受到的影响最小，将面临4.5%的经济衰退。
And unemployment will most likely average 9 percent in the bloc, the European Commission said, from 6.7 percent the year before.
欧盟委员会(European Commission)表示，欧元区的平均失业率极有可能达到9%，高于上年的6.7%。
The bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, will also be hammered, suffering its worst recession since the World War II, set to shrink by 6.5 percent, but it is expected to recover relatively quickly. France, the second-largest economy, is expected to contract 8.5 percent this year.
欧元区最大经济体德国也将遭受重创，遭遇自二战以来最严重的经济衰退，预计将下滑6.5%，但经济复苏也将较为容易。第二大经济体法国预计今年将面临8.5%的经济下行。
The traditional Plaka district of Athens, during lockdown in April.
在四月封锁期间的雅典娜传统的普拉卡区
The severe downturn in Europe will have major repercussions for United States growth and jobs because the two economies are intimately connected. The European Union and the United States are each other’s largest trading partners, exchanging goods and services worth $1.3 trillion last year.
欧洲的严重衰退将对美国的增长和就业产生重大影响，因为这两个经济体有着密切的联系。欧盟和美国互为最大的贸易伙伴，去年双方的商品和服务贸易额达1.3万亿美元。
European companies like Daimler, BMW or Siemens employ more than four million people in the United States, according to U.S. government figures. China will also suffer. The European Union is second only to the United States as a customer for Chinese goods.
美国政府的数据显示，戴姆勒(Daimler)、宝马(BMW)和西门子(Siemens)等欧洲公司在美国的雇员人数超过400万。中国也将受到影响。欧盟是中国商品的第二大客户，仅次于美国。
As grim as the economic outlook appears, the greater danger to the world economy may be the risk that the euro common currency could be undermined by the deepening rifts between its members and their leaders.
尽管经济前景看似黯淡，但全球经济面临的更大危险可能是，欧元区成员国与其领导人之间日益加深的分歧可能削弱欧元这一共同货币的地位。
That almost happened in the early years of the last decade, but was averted when the European Central Bank, the euro’s Federal Reserve, used its monetary firepower to prevent Greece, Italy and Spain from becoming insolvent.
在过去10年的头几年，这种情况早已不再是理论可能，但在欧洲央行(European Central Bank)——欧元区的美联储(Federal Reserve)——动用欧元的力量阻止希腊、意大利和西班牙破产时，这种情况得以避免。
The central bank is againflooding the eurozonewith credit and buying the bonds of eurozone governments to keep their borrowing costs from spinning out of control. But the central bank’s ability to rescue the euro again may be constrained after a ruling Tuesday by Germany’s highest court.
欧洲央行再次向欧元区注入大量信贷，并购买欧元区各国政府的债券，以防止它们的借贷成本失控。但在德国最高法院周二做出裁决后，欧洲央行再次拯救欧元的能力可能受到限制。
TheGerman Constitutional Courtissued an ultimatum to the European Central Bank, saying it must show that the side effects of the bond buying do not outweigh the economic benefits. The court threatened to bar Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, from taking part in the stimulus program, which would be a serious breach of European unity.
德国宪法法院向欧洲央行发出最后通牒，称必须证明购买债券的副作用不会超过经济效益。该法院威胁禁止德国央行(Bundesbank)参与经济刺激计划，因为这将严重破坏欧洲的团结。
The coronavirus is already producing aneconomic shock in Europemore severe than the one that followed the financial crisis in 2008.
就目前而言，此次疫情的爆发给欧洲造成的损失已经超过了2008年经济危机带来的经济冲击。
“It is clearly more massive, and it is going down more steeply,” Clemens Fuest, the president of the Ifo Institute, one of Germany’s leading economic think tanks, said during an online presentation Wednesday.
德国主要经济智库Ifo经济研究所(Ifo Institute)负责人的克莱门斯·弗斯特(Clemens Fuest)在周三的一次在线演示中表示:“它的规模显然更大，下降的幅度也更大。”
The pandemic could have ramifications for politics and society that are impossible to predict. The economic dislocation caused by the 2008 financial crisis helped fuel far-right populist movements in Germany, Italy and France.
此次疫情的爆发可能对政治和社会民生方面产生无法估量的影响。2008年金融危机造成的经济混乱，助长了德国、意大利和法国的极右翼民粹主义运动。
The city center in Munich, Germany
德国慕尼黑的市中心
Europe’s best hope is that economies will bounce back quickly, in what economists optimistically call a V-shaped recession, as lockdowns are eased. Already, factories have resumed production in much of Italy, and Germany this week allowed hairdressers to begin receiving customers again. France will begin gradually ending its lockdown next week.
欧洲最大的希望是经济能够迅速反弹。随着封锁的解除，经济学家乐观的将之称为V型倒退。意大利大部分地区的工厂已经恢复生产，德国也在本周允许理发师重新开始接待顾客。法国将于下周开始逐步解除封锁。
But many restrictions remain, including bans on large public gatherings. And no one knows yet whether the virus will reappear with a vengeance as public life resumes.
但依然有很多限制条件，比如禁止大型公共集会。目前还没有人知道，随着公众生活的恢复，这种病毒是否会卷土重来。
The fresh set of figures will pile pressure on European leaders to conjure up a brave joint response to the recession to ensure the recovery isn’t lopsided, hurting the joint currency and spawning more political unrest in the weaker economies.
新出炉的数据将给欧洲领导人带来更大的压力，要求他们拿出共同应对经济衰退的大胆举措，以确保经济复苏不会出现不平衡，从而损害欧元这一共同货币，并在经济较弱的国家引发更多的政治动荡。
Although the leaders have approved ahalf-trillion euros’ worth of measuresthat effectively call on wealthier nations to subsidize the recovery of worse-hit poorer ones, they have been criticized for not going far enough.
尽管各国领导人已经批准了价值5000亿欧元的措施，这些措施实际上是呼吁富裕国家为遭受更严重打击的贫困国家的经济复苏提供补贴，但外界批评他们做得还不够。
The persistent divide “poses a threat to the single market and the euro area — yet it can be mitigated through decisive, joint European action,” Mr. Gentiloni said.
根蒂洛尼说，这种持续的分歧“对单一市场和欧元区构成了威胁，但可以通过欧洲采取果断的联合行动加以缓解”。
Matina Stevis-Gridneff reported from Brussels, and Jack Ewing from Frankfurt.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff于布鲁塞尔报道，Jack Ewing于法兰克福报道。
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Brussels correspondent for The New York Times, covering the European Union. She joined The Times after covering East Africa for The Wall Street Journal for five years.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff是《纽约时报》驻布鲁塞尔记者，负责欧盟事务。在为《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)报道东非地区5年后，她加入了《纽约时报》。
Jack Ewing writes about business, banking, economics and monetary policy from Frankfurt, and contributes to breaking news coverage. Previously he worked for a decade at BusinessWeek magazine in Frankfurt, where he was European regional editor.
杰克·尤因(Jack Ewing)在法兰克福撰写有关商业、银行、经济和货币政策的文章，并为突发新闻报道撰稿。此前，他曾在法兰克福的《商业周刊》(BusinessWeek)杂志工作10年，担任欧洲地区编辑。
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