塔勒布的思想对于期权小核观点有用的策略

1.世界是不连续的 而人类的思维是连续的(火鸡定理）。 2.世界不是平均分布。（财富的分布），一件成功足以抵御100次小的不成功。 3.极低概率的事件，不等于不会发生。随着时间的推移，时间越长，发生的概率越大。一旦发生，人们又往往有过度的反应，这都是机会。 4.世界是不可测的，或者说个体/长期/能/预测对/整体/大概率是/不太可能的。（就算预测到，但是，事件带来的具体影响和程度也几乎无法预测。 ·························································································································· 这就是大小核原理产生的原理 ··························································································································· 黑天鹅策略的陷阱和风险：要有小核全部归零的准备和心理建设，要没有人性的机械操作。 （小核连续归零N次？） 勇气！耐心！ 突然暴富和骤然的贫穷同样都是灾难。 ························································································································· 期权大小核的难度在于：概率 节操 人生观 ························································································································· 爱情也是 只有 身 心 独立的人 才能有拥有爱情的可能 不然 永远只能来了又走 ························································································································· 幸好 还有电影 还有希望 还有那些事实存在稀少的美好 ························································································································· 一切 都是 时间