搬砖:历史暗示中国正处于金融危机的边缘
历史暗示中国正处于金融危机的边缘
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在它的中国经济的评论中挖掘出来一个惊人的事实,即中国正在承担多大的出现信用泡沫爆炸的危机。
IMF的经济学家们观察了43个国家超过50年的数据,他们发现其中有4个国家出现过像中国过去五年一样的快速增长的贷款,这4个国家全部在贷款快速增长三年后面临了金融危机。
在中国实时报(China Real Time)的要求下,IMF提供了四个国家的名字:
巴西(1994年金融危机)
爱尔兰(2008年金融危机)
西班牙(2008年金融危机)
瑞典(2008年金融危机)
在这四个国家里,贷款在五年时间里增长了GDP的75%-100%。IMF评估,在过去五年了,中国国内贷款已经增长了GDP的73%。
但是这些并不意味着中国就注定重复他们那些国家的失败。IMF主张中国开始严肃对待贷款问题,尤其是通过减少地方政府借贷的扩张。IMF说,如果在未来一两年内减少增长,中国能够避免危机。现在少增长一点点总比以后更少的增长。
IMF警告道:“如果中国不改变过去经济增长的模式(即更少的依赖于刺激GDP增长的借贷),激发金融破产或巨大减速的可能性将会持续增长。”
IMF的中国代表Zhang Tao说北京已经意识到危险了。“一方面通过打破经济稳定增长与调节经济结构和推动经济改革之间的平衡,另一方面,我有信心中国经济将能够处于更加持续和平衡的增长路径上。”他这样回复IMF对于中国的评论。
一切都在继续。
原文:
History Suggests China Is on Verge of Banking Crisis
One of the most striking facts unearthed by the International Monetary Fund in its recent review of China’s economy was how much of a risk Beijing was taking by not aggressively deflating its credit bubble.
IMF economists looked at 43 countries over 50 years and found that just four had seen credit grow as rapidly as China had in the past five years – and all four faced banking crises within three years of such supercharged growth.
The IMF review didn’t name the other countries. But in response to a request from China Real Time, the IMF filled in the blanks.
The other four are:
–Brazil (banking crisis in 1994)
–Ireland (banking crisis in 2008)
–Spain (banking crisis in 2008)
– Sweden (banking crisis in 2008)
In all those countries, debt grew by between 75% and 100% of GDP over five years. During the last five years, the IMF estimated, China’s domestic debt has increased by 73% of GDP.
All this doesn’t mean that China is doomed to repeat the failures of the other countries. The IMF urged China to start taking its credit problems more seriously, especially by reducing the expansion of local government debt. If deleveraging cut growth in the next year or two, the IMF said, so be it. Better a little less growth now than a lot less growth later.
“Without a change in the pattern of growth”—meaning less reliance on credit to fuel GDP gains – “the likelihood of a shock triggering financial disruption and/or a sharp slowdown will continue to rise,” the IMF warned.
Tao Zhang, China’s representative to the IMF, said Beijing is aware of the risks. “By striking a fine balance between stabilizing growth, on the one hand, and adjusting the economic structure and promoting reforms, on the other, my authorities are confident that the Chinese economy will be able to settle on a more sustainable and balanced growth path,” he wrote in a response to the IMF review.
To be continued…
–Bob Davis
原文来源于:华尔街日报-中国时事报
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/08/01/history-suggests-china-is-on-verge-of-banking-crisis/?KEYWORDS=China
翻译:流泉影
2014.08.01
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在它的中国经济的评论中挖掘出来一个惊人的事实,即中国正在承担多大的出现信用泡沫爆炸的危机。
IMF的经济学家们观察了43个国家超过50年的数据,他们发现其中有4个国家出现过像中国过去五年一样的快速增长的贷款,这4个国家全部在贷款快速增长三年后面临了金融危机。
在中国实时报(China Real Time)的要求下,IMF提供了四个国家的名字:
巴西(1994年金融危机)
爱尔兰(2008年金融危机)
西班牙(2008年金融危机)
瑞典(2008年金融危机)
在这四个国家里,贷款在五年时间里增长了GDP的75%-100%。IMF评估,在过去五年了,中国国内贷款已经增长了GDP的73%。
但是这些并不意味着中国就注定重复他们那些国家的失败。IMF主张中国开始严肃对待贷款问题,尤其是通过减少地方政府借贷的扩张。IMF说,如果在未来一两年内减少增长,中国能够避免危机。现在少增长一点点总比以后更少的增长。
IMF警告道:“如果中国不改变过去经济增长的模式(即更少的依赖于刺激GDP增长的借贷),激发金融破产或巨大减速的可能性将会持续增长。”
IMF的中国代表Zhang Tao说北京已经意识到危险了。“一方面通过打破经济稳定增长与调节经济结构和推动经济改革之间的平衡,另一方面,我有信心中国经济将能够处于更加持续和平衡的增长路径上。”他这样回复IMF对于中国的评论。
一切都在继续。
原文:
History Suggests China Is on Verge of Banking Crisis
One of the most striking facts unearthed by the International Monetary Fund in its recent review of China’s economy was how much of a risk Beijing was taking by not aggressively deflating its credit bubble.
IMF economists looked at 43 countries over 50 years and found that just four had seen credit grow as rapidly as China had in the past five years – and all four faced banking crises within three years of such supercharged growth.
The IMF review didn’t name the other countries. But in response to a request from China Real Time, the IMF filled in the blanks.
The other four are:
–Brazil (banking crisis in 1994)
–Ireland (banking crisis in 2008)
–Spain (banking crisis in 2008)
– Sweden (banking crisis in 2008)
In all those countries, debt grew by between 75% and 100% of GDP over five years. During the last five years, the IMF estimated, China’s domestic debt has increased by 73% of GDP.
All this doesn’t mean that China is doomed to repeat the failures of the other countries. The IMF urged China to start taking its credit problems more seriously, especially by reducing the expansion of local government debt. If deleveraging cut growth in the next year or two, the IMF said, so be it. Better a little less growth now than a lot less growth later.
“Without a change in the pattern of growth”—meaning less reliance on credit to fuel GDP gains – “the likelihood of a shock triggering financial disruption and/or a sharp slowdown will continue to rise,” the IMF warned.
Tao Zhang, China’s representative to the IMF, said Beijing is aware of the risks. “By striking a fine balance between stabilizing growth, on the one hand, and adjusting the economic structure and promoting reforms, on the other, my authorities are confident that the Chinese economy will be able to settle on a more sustainable and balanced growth path,” he wrote in a response to the IMF review.
To be continued…
–Bob Davis
原文来源于:华尔街日报-中国时事报
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/08/01/history-suggests-china-is-on-verge-of-banking-crisis/?KEYWORDS=China
翻译:流泉影
2014.08.01
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