未来20年两大权力转移
Here are three things to ponder about tomorrow’s world. States are becoming at once more assertive and less capable. Newly empowered citizens are becoming more demanding of their political masters. Put the two together and you may have a recipe for resurgent nationalism and conflict.
关于未来的世界格局，有三件事情值得我们仔细考虑。政府在变得愈发武断自信的同时，处理问题的能力却在下降。新近获得更大赋权的公民们对于自己的政治领袖则变得愈发挑剔。把这两个方面放在一起考察，你或许就能得出导致民族主义和冲突复燃的原因。
Last week the National Intelligence Council, the agency that sits atop the US intelligence community, published its quadrennial report on what the world might look like 20 years hence. Launched at a conference hosted by the Washington-based Atlantic Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” is a must read – a treasure trove of well-chosen facts, prescient analysis and strategic insights.
日前，美国级别最高的情报机构国家情报委员会（National Intelligence Council，简称NIC）发表了每四年一次的、展望二十年后世界局势的报告。这份名为《2030年全球趋势：不一样的世界》(Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds)的报告，在美国大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)举办的一次会议上发布。报告本身具有极高的阅读价值，是一座汇集了经过精挑细选的案例、有预见性的分析以及战略性洞见的宝库。美国大西洋理事会的总部位于华盛顿。 另客英语
The headlines generated by the assessment focused on its view of US power. The Pax Americana, the period of American ascendancy that began in 1945, was coming to an end, the NIC said, You might say so what? The global power shift is hardly new. But the significance, it seems, is that the US is now admitting it. The word in Washington was that the White House was distinctly nervous in advance of the report’s publication.
这份报告花了很大篇幅阐述对于美国实力走向的看法。NIC指出，“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)，即始于1945年的美国霸权时期，很快就将结束。你也许会说，那又如何？世界各国的实力对比变化早已不算新闻。但这份报告的意义在于，美国自身开始主动承认这一点。来自华盛顿的消息称，白宫在这份报告发表前表现出了不同以往的紧张。
Headlines apart, the NIC’s analysis is a lot more subtle that the China-up, America-down narrative beloved of the gloomsters who declare we all will soon be ruled from Beijing. For one thing, the spooks – and just about every other serious analyst – believe that the US will remain primus inter pares among the great powers in 2030. The point is that it will have to work harder if it wants to get its own way.
除了概括性的结论以外，NIC的分析比悲观主义者所钟爱的中国崛起、美国衰落论调更加细致——这些悲观派宣称，美国很快就将被中国统治。首先，报告作者以及几乎所有的严肃分析师都认为，到2030年美国仍将是世界强国阵营里居首位的国家。问题的关键在于，如果美国想要使自身主张得到贯彻，要比现在更加努力。
The report invites the reader to be optimistic or pessimistic according to taste. Surely there is something to celebrate in the arrival of at least a billion more people in the ranks of the global middle class? But then what about the strain this will put on finite natural resources? The vast majority of us will live longer, healthier lives but the world is getting old. Technology promises to multiply our personal relationships and access to knowledge. It is also a lethal weapon in the hands of tyrants and terrorists. Shale oil and gas will keep the lights on; climate change threatens our security, prosperity and, perhaps, the very future of the planet.
在看过这份报告以后，读者可以根据自身立场决定是持乐观还是悲观态度。当然，未来全球至少新增10亿中产阶级，这一点值得庆祝。但这对于有限的自然资源将构成怎样的压力？我们中的绝大多数人都将过上寿命更长、更加健康的生活，但整个世界则在趋于老龄化。科学技术能够极大地丰富我们的人际关系以及获取知识的途径，但也能被暴君以及恐怖主义者用作破坏性武器。页岩油气资源使我们能够维持目前的能源消费方式，气候变化则将威胁我们的生命安全、社会繁荣甚至整个地球的未来。 另客游戏
What’s certain is that the world is changing faster than at any time in human history and that most of us are still reluctant to step outside today’s frameworks. Keynes saw the problem long before anyone talked about a digital age. “The idea of the future being different from the present”, he wrote, “is so repugnant to our conventional modes of thought and behaviour that we, most of us, offer a great resistance to acting on it in practice.”
可以确信的一点是，整个世界正在以超出人类历史上任何一段时期的速度快速演变，而我们中的绝大多数人仍不愿走出现有的条条框框。凯恩斯早在人们开始谈论数字时代以前就已经看到了这一问题。他写道：“我们的惯性思维及行为模式，极其排斥那种认为未来会与现在不同的观念，受此影响，我们中的绝大多数人都在极力抵制把这种想法付诸实践。”
For me, the fascinating story of the next couple of decades will centre on the interaction of two big power shifts. The first is the familiar one from west to east and north to south. By 2030, Asia will have surpassed the US and Europe on most measurements of relative power. But this is not just about China and India. Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, Iran and others all have the potential to become significant powers. This is the post-western world that the US will find it harder to shape in its own image.
对我来说，未来二十年最吸引人的故事围绕两种巨大的权力转移。第一种是众所周知的权力东移以及南移。到2030年，亚洲将在大多数相对实力衡量指标上，超过欧美。不过这一转移并不只是与中印有关。墨西哥、印尼、土耳其、越南、伊朗以及其他国家都有可能成为有重大影响力的国家。对这一“后西方世界”，美国将愈加难以按照自己的蓝图勾画。
The more striking trend, though, is the ebbing of power away from the state. This has been happening for some time. Governments everywhere, in the west and among the rest, have been weakened by globalisation – losing power to multinational corporations, footloose capital and cross-border networks. The NIC identifies a second shift – from the state to the individual. The report calls this individual empowerment a “megatrend”, a development that will change fundamentally the way societies are organised.
然而更具有冲击力的潮流是政府影响力的衰落。这一潮流已经产生有一段时间了。包括西方和其他地区在内，任何地方的政府都由于全球化而受到了削弱，它们的影响力正在让渡给跨国公司、自由资本以及跨境网络。NIC发现了这一由政府到个人的第二种权力转移。报告称，个人赋权是“大趋势”，认为这一变化将从根本上改变社会的组织方式。
In rising states, growing prosperity and costless communications technology are emancipating hundreds of millions of people who have hitherto been locked out of politics. Women almost everywhere are securing greater access to education and the beginnings of a voice in politics.
在新兴国家，不断增长的财富以及廉价的通讯技术，正在将上亿迄今被排除在政治之外的人们解放出来。在几乎所有地方，妇女都获得了更多教育机会，并开始更多地发表政治看法。
We have caught a glimpse of the awakening in the uprisings in the Middle East but it reaches well beyond the Arab world. Ask the Chinese policy makers who forever fret about the social and political expectations of that country’s burgeoning middle class.
这种觉醒在中东起义中可见一斑，不过它远远不限于阿拉伯世界。对此只要问问中国政策制定者就可以知道——中国迅速壮大的中产阶级对社会及政治的期望，始终令他们感到不安。
Most of these developments are benign. A world in which women are empowered will surely be a good deal safer than one in which international relationships are ruled by male machismo. In the west, the digital revolution should be seen as an extension rather than a threat to democracy. But autocrats everywhere as well as democratic leaders steeped in the old politics of party and patronage will find the loss of power hugely destabilising.
这些发展动态多数情况下是有益的。一个妇女拥有更多权利的世界，肯定要比一个国际关系完全由男性说了算的世界安全多了。在西方，数字革命应被视作民主的扩展而不是威胁。不过深受旧式政党政治及裙带政治影响的独裁者和民主国家领导人，会因为权力的丧失而感到极大的不安。 在家学英语
So where is the threat in the diffusion of power? The problem is that states will be operating in a more fragmented and unpredictable international landscape. As the world becomes more multipolar it is also becoming less multilateral. The rising states are jealous of national sovereignty. Politicians in the west have grown reluctant to cede power to international institutions.
那么权力的分散有何威胁呢？问题在于各国将在一个更加分裂及不可预测的国际环境下运转。世界变得越多极化，其多边化倾向就会越弱。新兴国家对国家主权非常在意。而西方政客则越来越不愿意将权力让渡给国际机构。
The paradox is that this makes it all the harder for governments to address the insecurities, whether economic or physical, that most trouble their citizens. Uncontrolled migration, economic offshoring, financial instability, climate change, unconventional weapons proliferation, cross-border crime and terrorism – none of these are problems within the capacity of individual states to resolve.
这其中主要的矛盾在于，在这种情况下，政府将更难解决对本国公民构成最大威胁的种种不安定因素（不管是经济方面还是安全方面）。失去控制的移民、经济离岸化、金融不稳定、气候变化、非常规武器的扩散、跨境犯罪与恐怖主义，所有这些问题都不是依靠单个国家政府就能解决的。
To reclaim power governments will have to act in concert. The danger is that they will look instead for someone else to blame by stoking the fires of nationalism.
政府为了重新获得权力将不得不采取协调行动。然而危险之处在于，它们可能不这样做，反而通过煽动民族主义情绪寻找替罪羊。
关于未来的世界格局，有三件事情值得我们仔细考虑。政府在变得愈发武断自信的同时，处理问题的能力却在下降。新近获得更大赋权的公民们对于自己的政治领袖则变得愈发挑剔。把这两个方面放在一起考察，你或许就能得出导致民族主义和冲突复燃的原因。
Last week the National Intelligence Council, the agency that sits atop the US intelligence community, published its quadrennial report on what the world might look like 20 years hence. Launched at a conference hosted by the Washington-based Atlantic Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” is a must read – a treasure trove of well-chosen facts, prescient analysis and strategic insights.
日前，美国级别最高的情报机构国家情报委员会（National Intelligence Council，简称NIC）发表了每四年一次的、展望二十年后世界局势的报告。这份名为《2030年全球趋势：不一样的世界》(Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds)的报告，在美国大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)举办的一次会议上发布。报告本身具有极高的阅读价值，是一座汇集了经过精挑细选的案例、有预见性的分析以及战略性洞见的宝库。美国大西洋理事会的总部位于华盛顿。 另客英语
The headlines generated by the assessment focused on its view of US power. The Pax Americana, the period of American ascendancy that began in 1945, was coming to an end, the NIC said, You might say so what? The global power shift is hardly new. But the significance, it seems, is that the US is now admitting it. The word in Washington was that the White House was distinctly nervous in advance of the report’s publication.
这份报告花了很大篇幅阐述对于美国实力走向的看法。NIC指出，“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)，即始于1945年的美国霸权时期，很快就将结束。你也许会说，那又如何？世界各国的实力对比变化早已不算新闻。但这份报告的意义在于，美国自身开始主动承认这一点。来自华盛顿的消息称，白宫在这份报告发表前表现出了不同以往的紧张。
Headlines apart, the NIC’s analysis is a lot more subtle that the China-up, America-down narrative beloved of the gloomsters who declare we all will soon be ruled from Beijing. For one thing, the spooks – and just about every other serious analyst – believe that the US will remain primus inter pares among the great powers in 2030. The point is that it will have to work harder if it wants to get its own way.
除了概括性的结论以外，NIC的分析比悲观主义者所钟爱的中国崛起、美国衰落论调更加细致——这些悲观派宣称，美国很快就将被中国统治。首先，报告作者以及几乎所有的严肃分析师都认为，到2030年美国仍将是世界强国阵营里居首位的国家。问题的关键在于，如果美国想要使自身主张得到贯彻，要比现在更加努力。
The report invites the reader to be optimistic or pessimistic according to taste. Surely there is something to celebrate in the arrival of at least a billion more people in the ranks of the global middle class? But then what about the strain this will put on finite natural resources? The vast majority of us will live longer, healthier lives but the world is getting old. Technology promises to multiply our personal relationships and access to knowledge. It is also a lethal weapon in the hands of tyrants and terrorists. Shale oil and gas will keep the lights on; climate change threatens our security, prosperity and, perhaps, the very future of the planet.
在看过这份报告以后，读者可以根据自身立场决定是持乐观还是悲观态度。当然，未来全球至少新增10亿中产阶级，这一点值得庆祝。但这对于有限的自然资源将构成怎样的压力？我们中的绝大多数人都将过上寿命更长、更加健康的生活，但整个世界则在趋于老龄化。科学技术能够极大地丰富我们的人际关系以及获取知识的途径，但也能被暴君以及恐怖主义者用作破坏性武器。页岩油气资源使我们能够维持目前的能源消费方式，气候变化则将威胁我们的生命安全、社会繁荣甚至整个地球的未来。 另客游戏
What’s certain is that the world is changing faster than at any time in human history and that most of us are still reluctant to step outside today’s frameworks. Keynes saw the problem long before anyone talked about a digital age. “The idea of the future being different from the present”, he wrote, “is so repugnant to our conventional modes of thought and behaviour that we, most of us, offer a great resistance to acting on it in practice.”
可以确信的一点是，整个世界正在以超出人类历史上任何一段时期的速度快速演变，而我们中的绝大多数人仍不愿走出现有的条条框框。凯恩斯早在人们开始谈论数字时代以前就已经看到了这一问题。他写道：“我们的惯性思维及行为模式，极其排斥那种认为未来会与现在不同的观念，受此影响，我们中的绝大多数人都在极力抵制把这种想法付诸实践。”
For me, the fascinating story of the next couple of decades will centre on the interaction of two big power shifts. The first is the familiar one from west to east and north to south. By 2030, Asia will have surpassed the US and Europe on most measurements of relative power. But this is not just about China and India. Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, Iran and others all have the potential to become significant powers. This is the post-western world that the US will find it harder to shape in its own image.
对我来说，未来二十年最吸引人的故事围绕两种巨大的权力转移。第一种是众所周知的权力东移以及南移。到2030年，亚洲将在大多数相对实力衡量指标上，超过欧美。不过这一转移并不只是与中印有关。墨西哥、印尼、土耳其、越南、伊朗以及其他国家都有可能成为有重大影响力的国家。对这一“后西方世界”，美国将愈加难以按照自己的蓝图勾画。
The more striking trend, though, is the ebbing of power away from the state. This has been happening for some time. Governments everywhere, in the west and among the rest, have been weakened by globalisation – losing power to multinational corporations, footloose capital and cross-border networks. The NIC identifies a second shift – from the state to the individual. The report calls this individual empowerment a “megatrend”, a development that will change fundamentally the way societies are organised.
然而更具有冲击力的潮流是政府影响力的衰落。这一潮流已经产生有一段时间了。包括西方和其他地区在内，任何地方的政府都由于全球化而受到了削弱，它们的影响力正在让渡给跨国公司、自由资本以及跨境网络。NIC发现了这一由政府到个人的第二种权力转移。报告称，个人赋权是“大趋势”，认为这一变化将从根本上改变社会的组织方式。
In rising states, growing prosperity and costless communications technology are emancipating hundreds of millions of people who have hitherto been locked out of politics. Women almost everywhere are securing greater access to education and the beginnings of a voice in politics.
在新兴国家，不断增长的财富以及廉价的通讯技术，正在将上亿迄今被排除在政治之外的人们解放出来。在几乎所有地方，妇女都获得了更多教育机会，并开始更多地发表政治看法。
We have caught a glimpse of the awakening in the uprisings in the Middle East but it reaches well beyond the Arab world. Ask the Chinese policy makers who forever fret about the social and political expectations of that country’s burgeoning middle class.
这种觉醒在中东起义中可见一斑，不过它远远不限于阿拉伯世界。对此只要问问中国政策制定者就可以知道——中国迅速壮大的中产阶级对社会及政治的期望，始终令他们感到不安。
Most of these developments are benign. A world in which women are empowered will surely be a good deal safer than one in which international relationships are ruled by male machismo. In the west, the digital revolution should be seen as an extension rather than a threat to democracy. But autocrats everywhere as well as democratic leaders steeped in the old politics of party and patronage will find the loss of power hugely destabilising.
这些发展动态多数情况下是有益的。一个妇女拥有更多权利的世界，肯定要比一个国际关系完全由男性说了算的世界安全多了。在西方，数字革命应被视作民主的扩展而不是威胁。不过深受旧式政党政治及裙带政治影响的独裁者和民主国家领导人，会因为权力的丧失而感到极大的不安。 在家学英语
So where is the threat in the diffusion of power? The problem is that states will be operating in a more fragmented and unpredictable international landscape. As the world becomes more multipolar it is also becoming less multilateral. The rising states are jealous of national sovereignty. Politicians in the west have grown reluctant to cede power to international institutions.
那么权力的分散有何威胁呢？问题在于各国将在一个更加分裂及不可预测的国际环境下运转。世界变得越多极化，其多边化倾向就会越弱。新兴国家对国家主权非常在意。而西方政客则越来越不愿意将权力让渡给国际机构。
The paradox is that this makes it all the harder for governments to address the insecurities, whether economic or physical, that most trouble their citizens. Uncontrolled migration, economic offshoring, financial instability, climate change, unconventional weapons proliferation, cross-border crime and terrorism – none of these are problems within the capacity of individual states to resolve.
这其中主要的矛盾在于，在这种情况下，政府将更难解决对本国公民构成最大威胁的种种不安定因素（不管是经济方面还是安全方面）。失去控制的移民、经济离岸化、金融不稳定、气候变化、非常规武器的扩散、跨境犯罪与恐怖主义，所有这些问题都不是依靠单个国家政府就能解决的。
To reclaim power governments will have to act in concert. The danger is that they will look instead for someone else to blame by stoking the fires of nationalism.
政府为了重新获得权力将不得不采取协调行动。然而危险之处在于，它们可能不这样做，反而通过煽动民族主义情绪寻找替罪羊。
