我不听写，可做了什么？
那天看到网易公开课的翻译招募是10月7号。在不到两分钟的时间里，搜索了关于翻译的要求和流程，没有一丝犹豫的决定去做。
于是，下载了30分钟的演讲视频，《global economics》。然后就自己开始听写了起来。
前5分钟，我一共听写了2个小时。一遍遍的重复，依然听不清这个一分钟200个字说话基本不喘气的杜克大学教授讲的是什么。
那时，其实应该预料到不是一件简单的事情。我想到了组队。
在豆瓣上急匆匆的发了贴，欢迎豆油我。
第二天果然豆油了我，欣喜若狂。于是二人小队组成了。我做英文听写，他做英文翻译成中文。
那时已经是10号。
进度很慢，又要上课，又要处理学校的各种事情，还要完成作业。听写进程非常缓慢，而且错误不用想就非常的多。
自然而然我想到了国外的同学。小组又多了一个人，一人15分钟。
15分钟，又用了几乎一个上午，最后15分钟，3000左右字数。总共30分钟，几乎6000字。
我不会做字幕，当初的想法是，现学。
这时已经是12号了。13号晚上12点是截止日期。
我找了学校的技术牛。她告诉我的是，除非是奇迹，即使做一天，也很难把英文和中文配到视频上。
更重要的是，中文还没有翻译。晚上1点，我找到了豆瓣上的翻译大哥。
可惜的是，他告诉我，找别人吧。
13号深夜1点半，项目截止。
要说那时候心里不好受，其实松了一口气的感觉更强。虽然确实遗憾，自己想做的事情，并想分享给别人的事情，却没有成功。
当然，也与我不假思索的决定和不了解状况的唐突有莫大关系。怪不得别人。只是拖累了不少人。
对公开课，以及翻译这件事情，一直怀有莫大的兴趣，即使这次没有做成，以后再做吧。
附上所有的英文听力稿，也算是对这么长时间停止听写的一个补偿吧。
不完全是自己听写。留个纪念吧。
And without further ado I would like to introduce our first speaker, David Brady is an associated professor of sociology in public policy and director of Assigned European study in Duke University. His researches focus on poverty and inequality in politics, working labor, and globalization, and he routine his courses on global economy property and inequality, organization to management and research methods. He is the author of the out coming book Rich Democracies, Poor People: How Politics Explain Poverty. So from Duke University, please welcome, Professor David Brady.
Thank you for having me here. Just a couple preliminaries here. Please feel free to interrupt me at any point if you have any questions or there's anything that needs clarification. My students always joked me that I have a really bad habit of drinking too much diet coke and they show me how fast I talk and so I encourage them, I welcome them, I celebrate their interruptions because it keeps me on task. Secondly, please feel free to call me Dave or David either one is fine and please let me know if there's anything miss unclear before we go further. Ok?
Don't we start with something really, uh, pretty relevant to many of our lives and look at what’s called a commodity chain on where your blue jeans come from at Walmart and these figures I should notice this from a friend in colleague named Jennifer Bear (or Behr) who is a terrific sociologist in the university of Colorado and this is based on the research she's done where she goes and interviews people in the factory that produces the blue jeans that sell in Walmart. And so what she shows us here is we have three kinds of arrows: the black dotted lines are the flows of the orders from the retailer, in this case Walmart, to the manufacture or from the retailer brand to manufacture and so forth; The solid black arrows are from the flows of the material from the suppliers and manufactures to the factories, and the solid red arrows on the outside there, you see, are from the flows of final finished blue jeans to the retailer. All right? And just looking at the Walmart, only a sample of the products that they sell, we get a really clear sense of the diversity and the heterogenic sources that drive in our global economy. All right. First of all, Walmart has a direct buyer of its own clothing line which we see over here at the US manufacture and that produces its own clothing line which is the unique thing that was really only occurred in the past fifteen or so years within manufacturing and these jeans are called, I believe, Root 66 and Wal-Mart has several different suppliers of Root 66. There is not just one factory, there's not just one company. Uh, one of them is a company that has been named, uh, Sun Apparel and that was recently bought by a US brand named Johns of New York. And this company Sun Apparel owns a factory in Mexico, which is called Makiya’s Pepamy in their own central region in Mexico. Wal-Mart also buys Levis, which you see in the center of the figure there, and as you may know Levis has eliminated domestic manufacturing in the past twenty to thirty years. They used to produce all of their jeans I believe in up states New York. Now none of them are produced here in the United States. And these jeans are now basically contracted to a group in the Dominican republic and to a Dominican firm called Grupo M. Grupo M purchases Mexican made Dominican / which was produced with thread, manufactured in South Carolina and cotton grown in Texas. The material go to Grupo M factory in Dominican Republic where the rolls of denims that are rolled out and are cut into different pieces that were later be assembled into the jeans. They then take all these pieces; shift them to the other side of the island to Haiti where the labor costs are much lower. And there in Haiti they do a lot of the assembly in this export processing plant and the assembled jeans are then sent back to Grupo M factory in Dominican public where they go through the final processing such as stone washing or fading are various colors you might have seen in your jeans. Finally they are sent to a container ship from the Dominican port settled in Domingo to the port of Miami where they are also sent to a line// to Wal-mart redistribution center. Now finally in just mentioned briefly Wal-mart also places orders through the Taiwanese company named MianZing, I think that's how you pronounce it, which is now the world largest manufacture not just the blue jeans but also the pajamas//. And most of MZ manufacturing even though it’s a Taiwanese's company, most of the manufacturing takes place in China. And those products, as you can see, are partly assembled from the material from the India, cotton from India, thread from China and dyed from China and see this is an amazing matrix of global forces that are coming together just to produce the blue jeans that maybe many of you students are wearing in this classroom. Although I don't know Wal-Mart jeans are too un-cool for high school kids, maybe or not I don't know. But I assume that even the Gap probably has something like this similar commodity chain. Ok?
So today when you can use that as a metaphor to think about the global economy and I want to hit five major questions that we can think about as understanding and giving a big picture presentation to animate and orient our understanding of the global economy that you folks have been talking about all week long. So first what is globalization, what we mean by this fancy term. Secondly what are the trends in globalization, what really has changed through the past twenty to thirty years? Third I want to talk about what we would call traditional global inequalities. Inequalities of our global economy that have been existed at least over the course of 20th century is not longer, ok? Third I want to talk about some newly emerging global inequalities. Because one of the unique features of the recently globalization is that what creating inequality has really changed. And the division of labor in our global economy has truly changed really since the 1930s.
Uh. This in fact finally under seized// of any real possibility for global social justice. If you study this kind of work, it's often easy to get very pessimistic, very cynical, very skeptical about the possibilities for worldwide poverties to be reduced for well-beings in developing countries to truly improve. I see that there are many ways which we have seen progress, but we still face the major obstacles and we will discuss what are some of the venues the avenues that we can potentially see progress, in this regard.
Ok, let's talk first about what is globalization and talk about a few core ideas. When I refer to globalization, I would talk about the growth of the connections that spans space. So where as you might have a traditional industry for example, that was based on automobiles, let’s say Audi Modis. You would have suppliers, you would have parts distributors, you would have venders, you'd have all pieces of the industry within a very tight geographical space. Nowadays, in the global economy, these connections spend much greater geographic distances and this as a result, compresses the world that we live in. We have a much tighter connectiveness between vast geographical distances and this also reduces the influence of the international barriers on all kinds of processes. Moreover I would say you can think of globalization as a sort of the growing irrelevance of geographical distance. So I mean nowadays you can make a phone call to anywhere in the world, five, ten cents a minute meet with a one dollar connection charge. And it’s almost its data, communication, many resources can flow across vaster geographical distances and those distances are not that consequential anymore. Ok? Moreover I think we can say concretely of globalization as the growing flows across national borders of specific things like people what we know as migration, capital financial transactions, as well as investments that flow across distances as well as goods and services that flow across distances. Uh, and beyond that we can also notice that these flows that we are seeing growing in the global economy, their increasing rapidity, that happening more often, they lead to an increasing integration across places and include a greater share of the world’s population. So find in your mind the most remote geographical location you can imagine and there is many ways in which it still links to other parts of the global economy at vaster geographical distances and they would not have been so prior in the 20th century. Ok? Now when we speak of globalization, often scholars would refer to sort of the errors of globalization or the waves of globalization, but refuse// to talk about the timing of globalization that when// we talk about this. First wave is typically considered to start around fifteen hundred, uh, fifteen century. Many people talk about the age of the rediscovery or the age of conquest with Columbus finding the west, rediscovering the western atmosphere and that coincided with the rise of Capitalism. So prior to the 1500s, we would probably call this world economy a feudal economy, certainly not clearly a capitalized economy, but after that initial burst of globalization many of us would date the rise of capitalism right along that period of time. Now that earlier wave arguably peaked in the early 20th century prior to World War I. Ok we saw levels of trade between countries that are all quite high by historical comparison. So early 20th century, part of World War I, we had, you know, massive migration of people, here in the United States. Many people in the United States state their ancestors come to US around that term of the century migration flows. I know my grandfather went through Alabama, for example. And that was really a peak for globalization. Over the course of 20th century, after that you actually saw a substantial decline of globalization, these flows, these connections, these interconnections actually went down-hill, especially during the Great Depression. And it was only after World War II that we sort of mounted a steady creep upwards in terms of global interactions. The recent wave, the one that I’m gonna constrict, mostly talked on, really began in early 1970s. In the early 1970s, we saw lots of changes. Uh, we abandoned the fixing of the dollar to the gold standard, ok say each dollar worth so much in gold, and we started to allow the dollar to flow. So you had this floating exchange rate starting to emerge. We also a big change in early 1970s, we saw this sort of the decline in the US economy really started to begin in the 1970s. Up to the 40s, 50s and 60s, US economy was booming and we really somewhat raise the supply tote. Starting in 1970s, others then point to the first world crisis that occurred in 1970s. So for the first time, developing countries, could say, we’ve got these nature resources in commodity that you really want, we are gonna control the supply tote and that really changed the power dynamic of our global economy. So the early 70s is a very curier\\ period for this start of something new. Ok? And give you some vision on what it looks like, this goanna be a pretty good rendition of what the early wave of globalization look like at its peak. And here is a picture showing a map, showing the steam ship routes that were currently// around 19 hundred dollars to global economy. And you can look at this picture you can say, hey, you know it's a pretty global economy. We are pretty interconnected and you can say well potentially, globalization is not such a new thing. But certainly steam ship aroutes\\ did link distance outpost of the global economy with the rich affluent democracy or in some cases they were democratic yet. But western European, North American were certainly connected with places like Substan Africa as well as South America, East Asian so forth. But the type of globalization that was current there was very different from what we all see today; I mean it took a long time to take a steam ship across the Atlantic or across Pacific. And if you change goods back and forth, I mean this is incredibly slow in / process, communication took a long time so there were certainly connection but was a much more slow solo pace in the connection that occur. Now as a mediforce\\ for you, for global economy we can take a look at the picture in the internet. And this is simulation, I mean, not quite sure how you do it, but give you a picture what the internet look like based in 2002. All right. And then we see as you know, we see some regional note with little tight constrain connections within certain regions of global economy, but over all, this entire among threats we call in the internet that pretty massively connected.
When be that hard, some spot in maybe through five to six connections with pretty much any spots in the world. You know these network scholars, they work on things like small rural problems, lots of them I call it the study social network. You know, Kelvin Baken is right, the theory of Kelvin Baken is right. There really are something like six degrees of separation with almost any person in the world and I will call you that they do the / on this and / project. They will say we really don't think how many of separations between somebody anywhere in the world and it really is something like six degrees and it does connect everybody in the world and something like internet I think gives us some mediofore\\ for thinking about how globalization is different in these recent waves. Because compared to steam ship abrouts, this staff, these flows go really really rapidly, right? They can happen inspontaneously, you can have video we saw in the past few weeks, video that put on the web by protestor\\ that read\\ and being downloaded here in United States immediately. And the traditional media allowances can tell a way behind a game okay? So this is sort of telling us that one of the obvious things how they tell us what the blogs are telling them. So you know I don't quite understand the media's role within as that but they were covering, you know I don't know, you know the mum with time\\ kids are / mum really really well but they have to go to blog to cover what's going on in the out. So it really gives us some medifore\\ very very different kind of global economy from the steam ship routes which began in the 20th century. Ok. We goanna talk a little bit more about the definition to give us some concreteness to this. First of all, we talk about globalization. I have four to mention which we can think what is globalization. First of all there is diffusion and this is the active dissemination on practices, values and products throughout globe. When something diffuses, we would say there is an active dissemination. Somebody is pushing a model onto the world. How it would diffuse its media products throughout global economy right? So this diffusion will act dissemination of whatever might be a practice, that might be a policy, it might be a set of values to get assimilated throughout global economy. Secondly we had interdependent as a dimension of globalization. And this is the reciprocal, meaning two way affects of action that across bounder. So interdependence is the interaction across borders and what occurs in one venue facts also occur in second venue and they go back and forth. So for certain reciprocality. Third, there is organization we can think globalization is the activities institution that governed global norm, the trans-national actors and entities that have big influence on the global economy.
So the organizations of global economy are quite salient in understanding what's going on. And fourth we could talk about global culture, all right. And, certainly I think in the US economy as well as other parts of the world, (there is) an increased awareness of the unity of the world. There is increasingly shared beliefs about certain script that all countries are expected to believe in. whether or not they do on the ground, they certainly share a ridrick of these scripts. Okay.
It's interesting that Iran is having a democratic election. It’s sort of a stretch we can't really say Iran is a truly democratic country, but it's interesting that they feel to obligated to engage in the global cultural script of having a democratic election. They have voting processes, they talk freedom, the discourse they are using is something united costs to the global economy. And that does reflect a unique globalization of culture, whether or not on the ground practices are different from this global culture. Okay.
And one good example is the picture I got here. This is actually a small town in India that is one of the stars from Slumdog Millionaire, where he is from. And you see here is a bunch of kids gathering around this TV station, or a TV that is pump upon a chair. And they are celebrating one of these stars from millionaire winning in Oscar. And I thought it was a pretty good example of globalization of culture, the fact that a small town which we will see South Asia is still very highly rural part of the world. You see this interaction with Hollywood and big global American culture.
All right. Concretely we can look at (talk about) the economic aspect of globalization. And like I said before I like to think about globalization as flows, everything, whether it's products, its people, ideas. They are disseminating across the national borders or across the geological space. So concretely, here we could talk of the flow of the goods and services, the flows of people, which amount to labor, as well as information and capital across nation states. And specifically this can include things like the international trade and investment. When we talk about the flows of goods and services, that will be exports where the outward flowing goods and services. So when China export toys to the United States, a good example of export. Imports are the inward flows of goods and services. So when the United States imports beef from Brazil that will be a classic example of import.
We can also talk about the direct and portfolio investment, which are increasingly important on the long side of exports and imports. And inward foreign direct investment is a firm in a foreign country by the controlling share of a firm in your country. Okay. So when, for example, Honda build Honda in Marisol\\, Ohio, that's inward foreign direct investment. Outward foreign direct investment gets a little bit more attention, and that will occur for example, when a firm in your country, here in the United States, invests in a controlling share in a production or a facility in another country. So GM puts up a plant, as you see in this picture here in a second of GM producing Buick in Shanghai in 2007, that's a good example of outward foreign direct investment. Also, we should know portfolio investment. And portfolio investments are all these international financial flows that don't emote to a controlling interest. So we distinguish between direct investment where somebody is really trying to get a stake in the company, try and to be involved in the management and control of that company, and portfolio investment, where they're just speculating; they are throwing money at something, trying to see what happens, get the money in and out. So a great case of portfolio investment is the case of Iceland, having its banks, all of its pension funds, all of the towns in Iceland putting all their money in mortgage backed securities here in the United States. And if you follow Iceland, which, you know, probably didn't get a lot of news, but Iceland has really been devastated by the global economy in the past year or so, I mean, probably more than any other rich democracies I would say Iceland is in the deepest trouble. And Iceland completely bought in. They went all the way. Man, they said US economy is dynamic; let's get in all these mortgage backed securities. If you can figure those out, good for you. I can't figure them out, but they poured a ton of money in; their towns were putting their pension funds in. Everybody under the sun in Iceland had money somehow in the US economy in these mortgage backed securities. But none of it was about controlling shares. They weren't trying to take over Bank of America and tell it what to do strategically. They just were speculating, putting short-term and quicker investments. Now all that portfolio investment that's certainly globalization, but it's not like GM building Buicks in Shanghai. All right. So we have different kinds of investment, and that can be quite consequential.
Lastly, we can also mention migration, which is simply the movement of people and labor across borders, and as we all know this has been a big feature of the global economy, certainly in the United States as well as elsewhere.
Now, also speaking concretely, let's talk for a minute or so about some organizations that have been involved in the globalization. And I will just mention a few. There is a whole bunch we could talk all day long about organizations that involved in global economy. But I want to mention a couple that you be assent. First there are a couple key global actors; we can mention the United Nations, for example, as a global actor involved in the global economy.
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But I'll mention two others, one of them is the International Monetary Fund, which was founded after World War II, and this was right after World War II that the leaders of the surviving rich democracies, United States, Britain. They got together and said well we need a set of institutions to coordinate our global economy. We just saw what happened with the Depression, let's come up with some infrastructure to govern our global economy. The IMF was one of the big ones. And the IMF's job was be to headquartered in D.C.; its goal was to ensure that there were stable exchange rates, so nobody's currency was plummeting or skyrocketing or what have you. You need cooperation and coordination. But it was also supposed to be a credit rating agency, so its job was to see “Hmm… you know stock markets, I'm going to give Brazil a rating that is mediocre. And tell you I don't know if you want to buy Brazilian Reals these days because their economy is a little bit skeptical. Interestingly despite this mission of being a credit rating agency, it started to take on the job of lending money. So the IMF really got into the business of loaning money to developing countries to help them balance out their exchange rates. Then again, Sabina Shake's going to talk in a minute about Econ 101, maybe she can explain exchange rates. It's a lot, it's hard to understand. But one a country gets into trouble, somebody like the IMF steps in and says we'll give you a loan. But here's what's unique about post-1970s in the IMF's role: they said “we'll give you a loan, but we're goanna dictate some terms. We're goanna tell you in Indonesia, or Brazil, or Argentina. We're goanna say, well we'll give it as low and we'll help stabilize your currency, but we want you to privatize your public work. And I understand that in Chicago they get private parking meters, is this true? So imagine you're in a developing country and everything under the sun is being privatized partly because of the influence of this global actor. Most American citizens have no clue who the IMF is. But if you go to rural areas, the most rural outlying areas in Bolivia and talk to the peasants there, they can tell you who the IMF is because of the privatize all kinds of stuff as a condition. And Bolivia, for example, wouldn't have much of a choice. They have to do what the IMF wants because they need the money to stabilize their currency. See, IMF has enormous leverage. One of my colleagues says they really have you over the barrel at the point, and that's what's sort of interesting, that this global organization, that had a very simple job of rating countries and being a sort of coordinator, a very simple, elegant job would be coordinator of global monetary exchange, suddenly got in the business of loaning money in stipulating conditions for these countries were doing. See, the creep of global organizations is getting bigger and bigger and more and more influential in the global economy. In 2008, the IMF loaned over 16 billion dollars. They have enormous influence over the global economy, and they started pushing a lot of reforms in these developing countries, many of which, some of which are good, some of which, many of these developing countries are not happy about. Alfeit mentioned on the wall that banks have the goals, also was built in Brenten Woods in this post-World War II conference where they tried to establish the global infrastructure, and it's also based in D.C. Its goal was poverty reduction, growth, development and reconstruction. But it's also gotten into the business of doing research. A lot of ideas and lot of scholarships being done on the global economy. Some of the reasons that I provided today by Waves and Revolion, those are by scholars that are at the World Bank, that became the global sink tank of the global economy. And they are also very involved in debt relief as well. And they also, in the 1980s especially, had a lot of influence on developing countries like Dandamafdet.
Two of the big ones we can talk about. One is the World Trade Organization, which is very famous. We had a big conference in late 1980s in Seattle, with the WTO and there was a lot protests. It tends to be sort of the lightening rod for the global economy. And the World Trade Organization's pretty much been around since WWII. It was originally called the General Agreement on Terrorists and Trade, and its job was basically to be just the kind of the judiciary, if you will, for the global trading arrangements, and their job is to, you know, coordinate free trading, encourage free trading, fair competition, resolve disputes between countries. So when George W. Bush put tariffs on steels that were coming to the United States as a way to protect the steel industry, he did this early I think in 2002. This was really something that WTO said “No, you can't do this.” So he did it. It was politically favorable. He helped the steel industry briefly, maybe in the United States. But in the long run, the WTO stepped in and said “look, you signed our agreement, you signed all of our treaties, you are not allowed to do this” so they had to get rid of this. So The WTO has become quite important because it judicates all of the conflicts between countries on trade agreements. All right? So if we wanna put some sort of subsidies on one of our industries we have to be sure that it is consistent with our trade agreements around the world and the WTO is the one overseeing it. So the WTO became very famous, because it is the one that is adjudicating these trade agreements, but it really isn't responsible for anything, because these countries agreed to these trade agreements on their own. The European Union in my mind is the most important global actor in many ways. It's only a few short years from now the European Union is going to be the world biggest economy. If we think of it as one economy, it's gonna be bigger in the United States and it's gonna be bigger in China. Okay. Take a little time, but they keep going like they are going, doing things they are doing. I actually have a lot of faith in the European Union and the United States is gonna be sort of a secondcidal (sital?), because the European Union is an amazing construction. I mean, just think about this. Early in the 20th century, we have two World Wars in Europe. All right. Germany and France people hated each other. All right. The Dutch still piss(?) the Germany, right. But what they did after World War II is that they started to get together and find a way to build a common market. And this common market originally with full time things like allowing German steel and coal and French steel and coal will be stained effectively. It built into gigantic super (sate?). And this is an amazing accomplishment. They really built an economy, built a government from the ground up, they unites the European economies. And you will note that we haven't had a World War since World War II. I think the European Union gets some of the credits for that occurring. All right. More over, the European Union it has incredibly catalyzed and encouraged a lot of trade, a lot of migration, a lot of flows of people, and information across these borders within Europe. And so even though people still speak their own languages, there is still a lot of regional identity within Europe, it's an amazing sort of unification that is occurring quite impressive within global history. And the European Union has the job of managing EU, but they've grown into this manafulmocracy (?)…… So if you go to Brasol we can see buildings like the European Comition where the flags of all the members of the states are there. And now run the European you know monitoring Union, which has its own currency. When you travel, which many of you may have, you know, it really makes it a lot easier. You don't have to exchange dollar or whatever currency each national border. So it's quite interesting. And this is really an amazing social experiment, when we think historically about a bunch of … are coming together, a bunch of countries would historically conflicting interest, and say that's form a confederation, and not only that, we are gonna have the same currency. So it's really an amazing transformation that really is, I think some ways, a model of how the global economy is unfolding.
All right. So let's talk about it concretely. Uh, I talked about there was an early wave of globalization. And as you can see, it's from 1830s to 1992, and I will go and say these numbers are estimate. We don't really know what trade levels were around 1880s, but we have information that gives us a good estimate of what it looked like. And you do see that earlier wave, around that beginning of the 20th century, 1900s, there was a sort of wave where we had a rise in exports and imports, trade as a percent of the global economy, the amount of goods and services exchange as a percentage of the total amount of economic activity. Okay. And it really did occur. So in the, you know, middle of the 20th century, you might have said, well we've seen the global economy before. In the 1980s, many scholars said, “Oh, this globalization stuff is not that new. We've seen global exchange before. Early 20th century, there was higher level of all of these what we've done is restore the level that existed prior to the First World War and up until this goes to 1990s. It was basically just sparklingly back upwards after the period what really drove it down was the Great Depression and World Wars that really sort of undercuts the global economy. But what we now know if you just look at the figures since 1960s, the numbers are different from the previous slides, because the different ways of estimating things, but it gives you a picture of thrives, is that since the 1960s, and you look all the way to 2007, it's really just cap going. Okay. So early 1980s, tons of scholars wrote books, and they were arguing if globalization is real, is it something new, is it something we see distinctive, or have we seen it before? And many people said, it's not that new, it's not that big a deal. Now, that's a harder argument to make, because nowadays it kept going. It was sort of like we thought we've seen the peak around the 1990s, but if you look at sort of the middle of the figure in the 1990s, over the course of 90s, it blow up again. Okay. So trade has just kept going. And I've yet seen it plateau; it may be plateau with the global economic recession we are experiencing right now. But it's historically unpressitive(?) level of trade. It really is unique. Okay. We are looking at something like 50 or 60 percent of the global economy is involved in trade somehow. Uh, on the bottom you see foreign direct investment which as I said is one of the ways that international investment can occur as different from portfolio investment. It's much smaller, but it's certainly growing as well. We can look specifically at the fluent(?) democracy which are 18 itself rich democracies Japan, Western Europe, North America, you can imagine the countries. And we see some interesting trends. United States is the dotted line of the bottom, and you can say, “Well, the US is pretty small, but over the course of the 75 19 survived 1994, US doubled.” It went from 15 to 20 percent in terms of trade and…
于是，下载了30分钟的演讲视频，《global economics》。然后就自己开始听写了起来。
前5分钟，我一共听写了2个小时。一遍遍的重复，依然听不清这个一分钟200个字说话基本不喘气的杜克大学教授讲的是什么。
那时，其实应该预料到不是一件简单的事情。我想到了组队。
在豆瓣上急匆匆的发了贴，欢迎豆油我。
第二天果然豆油了我，欣喜若狂。于是二人小队组成了。我做英文听写，他做英文翻译成中文。
那时已经是10号。
进度很慢，又要上课，又要处理学校的各种事情，还要完成作业。听写进程非常缓慢，而且错误不用想就非常的多。
自然而然我想到了国外的同学。小组又多了一个人，一人15分钟。
15分钟，又用了几乎一个上午，最后15分钟，3000左右字数。总共30分钟，几乎6000字。
我不会做字幕，当初的想法是，现学。
这时已经是12号了。13号晚上12点是截止日期。
我找了学校的技术牛。她告诉我的是，除非是奇迹，即使做一天，也很难把英文和中文配到视频上。
更重要的是，中文还没有翻译。晚上1点，我找到了豆瓣上的翻译大哥。
可惜的是，他告诉我，找别人吧。
13号深夜1点半，项目截止。
要说那时候心里不好受，其实松了一口气的感觉更强。虽然确实遗憾，自己想做的事情，并想分享给别人的事情，却没有成功。
当然，也与我不假思索的决定和不了解状况的唐突有莫大关系。怪不得别人。只是拖累了不少人。
对公开课，以及翻译这件事情，一直怀有莫大的兴趣，即使这次没有做成，以后再做吧。
附上所有的英文听力稿，也算是对这么长时间停止听写的一个补偿吧。
不完全是自己听写。留个纪念吧。
And without further ado I would like to introduce our first speaker, David Brady is an associated professor of sociology in public policy and director of Assigned European study in Duke University. His researches focus on poverty and inequality in politics, working labor, and globalization, and he routine his courses on global economy property and inequality, organization to management and research methods. He is the author of the out coming book Rich Democracies, Poor People: How Politics Explain Poverty. So from Duke University, please welcome, Professor David Brady.
Thank you for having me here. Just a couple preliminaries here. Please feel free to interrupt me at any point if you have any questions or there's anything that needs clarification. My students always joked me that I have a really bad habit of drinking too much diet coke and they show me how fast I talk and so I encourage them, I welcome them, I celebrate their interruptions because it keeps me on task. Secondly, please feel free to call me Dave or David either one is fine and please let me know if there's anything miss unclear before we go further. Ok?
Don't we start with something really, uh, pretty relevant to many of our lives and look at what’s called a commodity chain on where your blue jeans come from at Walmart and these figures I should notice this from a friend in colleague named Jennifer Bear (or Behr) who is a terrific sociologist in the university of Colorado and this is based on the research she's done where she goes and interviews people in the factory that produces the blue jeans that sell in Walmart. And so what she shows us here is we have three kinds of arrows: the black dotted lines are the flows of the orders from the retailer, in this case Walmart, to the manufacture or from the retailer brand to manufacture and so forth; The solid black arrows are from the flows of the material from the suppliers and manufactures to the factories, and the solid red arrows on the outside there, you see, are from the flows of final finished blue jeans to the retailer. All right? And just looking at the Walmart, only a sample of the products that they sell, we get a really clear sense of the diversity and the heterogenic sources that drive in our global economy. All right. First of all, Walmart has a direct buyer of its own clothing line which we see over here at the US manufacture and that produces its own clothing line which is the unique thing that was really only occurred in the past fifteen or so years within manufacturing and these jeans are called, I believe, Root 66 and Wal-Mart has several different suppliers of Root 66. There is not just one factory, there's not just one company. Uh, one of them is a company that has been named, uh, Sun Apparel and that was recently bought by a US brand named Johns of New York. And this company Sun Apparel owns a factory in Mexico, which is called Makiya’s Pepamy in their own central region in Mexico. Wal-Mart also buys Levis, which you see in the center of the figure there, and as you may know Levis has eliminated domestic manufacturing in the past twenty to thirty years. They used to produce all of their jeans I believe in up states New York. Now none of them are produced here in the United States. And these jeans are now basically contracted to a group in the Dominican republic and to a Dominican firm called Grupo M. Grupo M purchases Mexican made Dominican / which was produced with thread, manufactured in South Carolina and cotton grown in Texas. The material go to Grupo M factory in Dominican Republic where the rolls of denims that are rolled out and are cut into different pieces that were later be assembled into the jeans. They then take all these pieces; shift them to the other side of the island to Haiti where the labor costs are much lower. And there in Haiti they do a lot of the assembly in this export processing plant and the assembled jeans are then sent back to Grupo M factory in Dominican public where they go through the final processing such as stone washing or fading are various colors you might have seen in your jeans. Finally they are sent to a container ship from the Dominican port settled in Domingo to the port of Miami where they are also sent to a line// to Wal-mart redistribution center. Now finally in just mentioned briefly Wal-mart also places orders through the Taiwanese company named MianZing, I think that's how you pronounce it, which is now the world largest manufacture not just the blue jeans but also the pajamas//. And most of MZ manufacturing even though it’s a Taiwanese's company, most of the manufacturing takes place in China. And those products, as you can see, are partly assembled from the material from the India, cotton from India, thread from China and dyed from China and see this is an amazing matrix of global forces that are coming together just to produce the blue jeans that maybe many of you students are wearing in this classroom. Although I don't know Wal-Mart jeans are too un-cool for high school kids, maybe or not I don't know. But I assume that even the Gap probably has something like this similar commodity chain. Ok?
So today when you can use that as a metaphor to think about the global economy and I want to hit five major questions that we can think about as understanding and giving a big picture presentation to animate and orient our understanding of the global economy that you folks have been talking about all week long. So first what is globalization, what we mean by this fancy term. Secondly what are the trends in globalization, what really has changed through the past twenty to thirty years? Third I want to talk about what we would call traditional global inequalities. Inequalities of our global economy that have been existed at least over the course of 20th century is not longer, ok? Third I want to talk about some newly emerging global inequalities. Because one of the unique features of the recently globalization is that what creating inequality has really changed. And the division of labor in our global economy has truly changed really since the 1930s.
Uh. This in fact finally under seized// of any real possibility for global social justice. If you study this kind of work, it's often easy to get very pessimistic, very cynical, very skeptical about the possibilities for worldwide poverties to be reduced for well-beings in developing countries to truly improve. I see that there are many ways which we have seen progress, but we still face the major obstacles and we will discuss what are some of the venues the avenues that we can potentially see progress, in this regard.
Ok, let's talk first about what is globalization and talk about a few core ideas. When I refer to globalization, I would talk about the growth of the connections that spans space. So where as you might have a traditional industry for example, that was based on automobiles, let’s say Audi Modis. You would have suppliers, you would have parts distributors, you would have venders, you'd have all pieces of the industry within a very tight geographical space. Nowadays, in the global economy, these connections spend much greater geographic distances and this as a result, compresses the world that we live in. We have a much tighter connectiveness between vast geographical distances and this also reduces the influence of the international barriers on all kinds of processes. Moreover I would say you can think of globalization as a sort of the growing irrelevance of geographical distance. So I mean nowadays you can make a phone call to anywhere in the world, five, ten cents a minute meet with a one dollar connection charge. And it’s almost its data, communication, many resources can flow across vaster geographical distances and those distances are not that consequential anymore. Ok? Moreover I think we can say concretely of globalization as the growing flows across national borders of specific things like people what we know as migration, capital financial transactions, as well as investments that flow across distances as well as goods and services that flow across distances. Uh, and beyond that we can also notice that these flows that we are seeing growing in the global economy, their increasing rapidity, that happening more often, they lead to an increasing integration across places and include a greater share of the world’s population. So find in your mind the most remote geographical location you can imagine and there is many ways in which it still links to other parts of the global economy at vaster geographical distances and they would not have been so prior in the 20th century. Ok? Now when we speak of globalization, often scholars would refer to sort of the errors of globalization or the waves of globalization, but refuse// to talk about the timing of globalization that when// we talk about this. First wave is typically considered to start around fifteen hundred, uh, fifteen century. Many people talk about the age of the rediscovery or the age of conquest with Columbus finding the west, rediscovering the western atmosphere and that coincided with the rise of Capitalism. So prior to the 1500s, we would probably call this world economy a feudal economy, certainly not clearly a capitalized economy, but after that initial burst of globalization many of us would date the rise of capitalism right along that period of time. Now that earlier wave arguably peaked in the early 20th century prior to World War I. Ok we saw levels of trade between countries that are all quite high by historical comparison. So early 20th century, part of World War I, we had, you know, massive migration of people, here in the United States. Many people in the United States state their ancestors come to US around that term of the century migration flows. I know my grandfather went through Alabama, for example. And that was really a peak for globalization. Over the course of 20th century, after that you actually saw a substantial decline of globalization, these flows, these connections, these interconnections actually went down-hill, especially during the Great Depression. And it was only after World War II that we sort of mounted a steady creep upwards in terms of global interactions. The recent wave, the one that I’m gonna constrict, mostly talked on, really began in early 1970s. In the early 1970s, we saw lots of changes. Uh, we abandoned the fixing of the dollar to the gold standard, ok say each dollar worth so much in gold, and we started to allow the dollar to flow. So you had this floating exchange rate starting to emerge. We also a big change in early 1970s, we saw this sort of the decline in the US economy really started to begin in the 1970s. Up to the 40s, 50s and 60s, US economy was booming and we really somewhat raise the supply tote. Starting in 1970s, others then point to the first world crisis that occurred in 1970s. So for the first time, developing countries, could say, we’ve got these nature resources in commodity that you really want, we are gonna control the supply tote and that really changed the power dynamic of our global economy. So the early 70s is a very curier\\ period for this start of something new. Ok? And give you some vision on what it looks like, this goanna be a pretty good rendition of what the early wave of globalization look like at its peak. And here is a picture showing a map, showing the steam ship routes that were currently// around 19 hundred dollars to global economy. And you can look at this picture you can say, hey, you know it's a pretty global economy. We are pretty interconnected and you can say well potentially, globalization is not such a new thing. But certainly steam ship aroutes\\ did link distance outpost of the global economy with the rich affluent democracy or in some cases they were democratic yet. But western European, North American were certainly connected with places like Substan Africa as well as South America, East Asian so forth. But the type of globalization that was current there was very different from what we all see today; I mean it took a long time to take a steam ship across the Atlantic or across Pacific. And if you change goods back and forth, I mean this is incredibly slow in / process, communication took a long time so there were certainly connection but was a much more slow solo pace in the connection that occur. Now as a mediforce\\ for you, for global economy we can take a look at the picture in the internet. And this is simulation, I mean, not quite sure how you do it, but give you a picture what the internet look like based in 2002. All right. And then we see as you know, we see some regional note with little tight constrain connections within certain regions of global economy, but over all, this entire among threats we call in the internet that pretty massively connected.
When be that hard, some spot in maybe through five to six connections with pretty much any spots in the world. You know these network scholars, they work on things like small rural problems, lots of them I call it the study social network. You know, Kelvin Baken is right, the theory of Kelvin Baken is right. There really are something like six degrees of separation with almost any person in the world and I will call you that they do the / on this and / project. They will say we really don't think how many of separations between somebody anywhere in the world and it really is something like six degrees and it does connect everybody in the world and something like internet I think gives us some mediofore\\ for thinking about how globalization is different in these recent waves. Because compared to steam ship abrouts, this staff, these flows go really really rapidly, right? They can happen inspontaneously, you can have video we saw in the past few weeks, video that put on the web by protestor\\ that read\\ and being downloaded here in United States immediately. And the traditional media allowances can tell a way behind a game okay? So this is sort of telling us that one of the obvious things how they tell us what the blogs are telling them. So you know I don't quite understand the media's role within as that but they were covering, you know I don't know, you know the mum with time\\ kids are / mum really really well but they have to go to blog to cover what's going on in the out. So it really gives us some medifore\\ very very different kind of global economy from the steam ship routes which began in the 20th century. Ok. We goanna talk a little bit more about the definition to give us some concreteness to this. First of all, we talk about globalization. I have four to mention which we can think what is globalization. First of all there is diffusion and this is the active dissemination on practices, values and products throughout globe. When something diffuses, we would say there is an active dissemination. Somebody is pushing a model onto the world. How it would diffuse its media products throughout global economy right? So this diffusion will act dissemination of whatever might be a practice, that might be a policy, it might be a set of values to get assimilated throughout global economy. Secondly we had interdependent as a dimension of globalization. And this is the reciprocal, meaning two way affects of action that across bounder. So interdependence is the interaction across borders and what occurs in one venue facts also occur in second venue and they go back and forth. So for certain reciprocality. Third, there is organization we can think globalization is the activities institution that governed global norm, the trans-national actors and entities that have big influence on the global economy.
So the organizations of global economy are quite salient in understanding what's going on. And fourth we could talk about global culture, all right. And, certainly I think in the US economy as well as other parts of the world, (there is) an increased awareness of the unity of the world. There is increasingly shared beliefs about certain script that all countries are expected to believe in. whether or not they do on the ground, they certainly share a ridrick of these scripts. Okay.
It's interesting that Iran is having a democratic election. It’s sort of a stretch we can't really say Iran is a truly democratic country, but it's interesting that they feel to obligated to engage in the global cultural script of having a democratic election. They have voting processes, they talk freedom, the discourse they are using is something united costs to the global economy. And that does reflect a unique globalization of culture, whether or not on the ground practices are different from this global culture. Okay.
And one good example is the picture I got here. This is actually a small town in India that is one of the stars from Slumdog Millionaire, where he is from. And you see here is a bunch of kids gathering around this TV station, or a TV that is pump upon a chair. And they are celebrating one of these stars from millionaire winning in Oscar. And I thought it was a pretty good example of globalization of culture, the fact that a small town which we will see South Asia is still very highly rural part of the world. You see this interaction with Hollywood and big global American culture.
All right. Concretely we can look at (talk about) the economic aspect of globalization. And like I said before I like to think about globalization as flows, everything, whether it's products, its people, ideas. They are disseminating across the national borders or across the geological space. So concretely, here we could talk of the flow of the goods and services, the flows of people, which amount to labor, as well as information and capital across nation states. And specifically this can include things like the international trade and investment. When we talk about the flows of goods and services, that will be exports where the outward flowing goods and services. So when China export toys to the United States, a good example of export. Imports are the inward flows of goods and services. So when the United States imports beef from Brazil that will be a classic example of import.
We can also talk about the direct and portfolio investment, which are increasingly important on the long side of exports and imports. And inward foreign direct investment is a firm in a foreign country by the controlling share of a firm in your country. Okay. So when, for example, Honda build Honda in Marisol\\, Ohio, that's inward foreign direct investment. Outward foreign direct investment gets a little bit more attention, and that will occur for example, when a firm in your country, here in the United States, invests in a controlling share in a production or a facility in another country. So GM puts up a plant, as you see in this picture here in a second of GM producing Buick in Shanghai in 2007, that's a good example of outward foreign direct investment. Also, we should know portfolio investment. And portfolio investments are all these international financial flows that don't emote to a controlling interest. So we distinguish between direct investment where somebody is really trying to get a stake in the company, try and to be involved in the management and control of that company, and portfolio investment, where they're just speculating; they are throwing money at something, trying to see what happens, get the money in and out. So a great case of portfolio investment is the case of Iceland, having its banks, all of its pension funds, all of the towns in Iceland putting all their money in mortgage backed securities here in the United States. And if you follow Iceland, which, you know, probably didn't get a lot of news, but Iceland has really been devastated by the global economy in the past year or so, I mean, probably more than any other rich democracies I would say Iceland is in the deepest trouble. And Iceland completely bought in. They went all the way. Man, they said US economy is dynamic; let's get in all these mortgage backed securities. If you can figure those out, good for you. I can't figure them out, but they poured a ton of money in; their towns were putting their pension funds in. Everybody under the sun in Iceland had money somehow in the US economy in these mortgage backed securities. But none of it was about controlling shares. They weren't trying to take over Bank of America and tell it what to do strategically. They just were speculating, putting short-term and quicker investments. Now all that portfolio investment that's certainly globalization, but it's not like GM building Buicks in Shanghai. All right. So we have different kinds of investment, and that can be quite consequential.
Lastly, we can also mention migration, which is simply the movement of people and labor across borders, and as we all know this has been a big feature of the global economy, certainly in the United States as well as elsewhere.
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Now, also speaking concretely, let's talk for a minute or so about some organizations that have been involved in the globalization. And I will just mention a few. There is a whole bunch we could talk all day long about organizations that involved in global economy. But I want to mention a couple that you be assent. First there are a couple key global actors; we can mention the United Nations, for example, as a global actor involved in the global economy.
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But I'll mention two others, one of them is the International Monetary Fund, which was founded after World War II, and this was right after World War II that the leaders of the surviving rich democracies, United States, Britain. They got together and said well we need a set of institutions to coordinate our global economy. We just saw what happened with the Depression, let's come up with some infrastructure to govern our global economy. The IMF was one of the big ones. And the IMF's job was be to headquartered in D.C.; its goal was to ensure that there were stable exchange rates, so nobody's currency was plummeting or skyrocketing or what have you. You need cooperation and coordination. But it was also supposed to be a credit rating agency, so its job was to see “Hmm… you know stock markets, I'm going to give Brazil a rating that is mediocre. And tell you I don't know if you want to buy Brazilian Reals these days because their economy is a little bit skeptical. Interestingly despite this mission of being a credit rating agency, it started to take on the job of lending money. So the IMF really got into the business of loaning money to developing countries to help them balance out their exchange rates. Then again, Sabina Shake's going to talk in a minute about Econ 101, maybe she can explain exchange rates. It's a lot, it's hard to understand. But one a country gets into trouble, somebody like the IMF steps in and says we'll give you a loan. But here's what's unique about post-1970s in the IMF's role: they said “we'll give you a loan, but we're goanna dictate some terms. We're goanna tell you in Indonesia, or Brazil, or Argentina. We're goanna say, well we'll give it as low and we'll help stabilize your currency, but we want you to privatize your public work. And I understand that in Chicago they get private parking meters, is this true? So imagine you're in a developing country and everything under the sun is being privatized partly because of the influence of this global actor. Most American citizens have no clue who the IMF is. But if you go to rural areas, the most rural outlying areas in Bolivia and talk to the peasants there, they can tell you who the IMF is because of the privatize all kinds of stuff as a condition. And Bolivia, for example, wouldn't have much of a choice. They have to do what the IMF wants because they need the money to stabilize their currency. See, IMF has enormous leverage. One of my colleagues says they really have you over the barrel at the point, and that's what's sort of interesting, that this global organization, that had a very simple job of rating countries and being a sort of coordinator, a very simple, elegant job would be coordinator of global monetary exchange, suddenly got in the business of loaning money in stipulating conditions for these countries were doing. See, the creep of global organizations is getting bigger and bigger and more and more influential in the global economy. In 2008, the IMF loaned over 16 billion dollars. They have enormous influence over the global economy, and they started pushing a lot of reforms in these developing countries, many of which, some of which are good, some of which, many of these developing countries are not happy about. Alfeit mentioned on the wall that banks have the goals, also was built in Brenten Woods in this post-World War II conference where they tried to establish the global infrastructure, and it's also based in D.C. Its goal was poverty reduction, growth, development and reconstruction. But it's also gotten into the business of doing research. A lot of ideas and lot of scholarships being done on the global economy. Some of the reasons that I provided today by Waves and Revolion, those are by scholars that are at the World Bank, that became the global sink tank of the global economy. And they are also very involved in debt relief as well. And they also, in the 1980s especially, had a lot of influence on developing countries like Dandamafdet.
Two of the big ones we can talk about. One is the World Trade Organization, which is very famous. We had a big conference in late 1980s in Seattle, with the WTO and there was a lot protests. It tends to be sort of the lightening rod for the global economy. And the World Trade Organization's pretty much been around since WWII. It was originally called the General Agreement on Terrorists and Trade, and its job was basically to be just the kind of the judiciary, if you will, for the global trading arrangements, and their job is to, you know, coordinate free trading, encourage free trading, fair competition, resolve disputes between countries. So when George W. Bush put tariffs on steels that were coming to the United States as a way to protect the steel industry, he did this early I think in 2002. This was really something that WTO said “No, you can't do this.” So he did it. It was politically favorable. He helped the steel industry briefly, maybe in the United States. But in the long run, the WTO stepped in and said “look, you signed our agreement, you signed all of our treaties, you are not allowed to do this” so they had to get rid of this. So The WTO has become quite important because it judicates all of the conflicts between countries on trade agreements. All right? So if we wanna put some sort of subsidies on one of our industries we have to be sure that it is consistent with our trade agreements around the world and the WTO is the one overseeing it. So the WTO became very famous, because it is the one that is adjudicating these trade agreements, but it really isn't responsible for anything, because these countries agreed to these trade agreements on their own. The European Union in my mind is the most important global actor in many ways. It's only a few short years from now the European Union is going to be the world biggest economy. If we think of it as one economy, it's gonna be bigger in the United States and it's gonna be bigger in China. Okay. Take a little time, but they keep going like they are going, doing things they are doing. I actually have a lot of faith in the European Union and the United States is gonna be sort of a secondcidal (sital?), because the European Union is an amazing construction. I mean, just think about this. Early in the 20th century, we have two World Wars in Europe. All right. Germany and France people hated each other. All right. The Dutch still piss(?) the Germany, right. But what they did after World War II is that they started to get together and find a way to build a common market. And this common market originally with full time things like allowing German steel and coal and French steel and coal will be stained effectively. It built into gigantic super (sate?). And this is an amazing accomplishment. They really built an economy, built a government from the ground up, they unites the European economies. And you will note that we haven't had a World War since World War II. I think the European Union gets some of the credits for that occurring. All right. More over, the European Union it has incredibly catalyzed and encouraged a lot of trade, a lot of migration, a lot of flows of people, and information across these borders within Europe. And so even though people still speak their own languages, there is still a lot of regional identity within Europe, it's an amazing sort of unification that is occurring quite impressive within global history. And the European Union has the job of managing EU, but they've grown into this manafulmocracy (?)…… So if you go to Brasol we can see buildings like the European Comition where the flags of all the members of the states are there. And now run the European you know monitoring Union, which has its own currency. When you travel, which many of you may have, you know, it really makes it a lot easier. You don't have to exchange dollar or whatever currency each national border. So it's quite interesting. And this is really an amazing social experiment, when we think historically about a bunch of … are coming together, a bunch of countries would historically conflicting interest, and say that's form a confederation, and not only that, we are gonna have the same currency. So it's really an amazing transformation that really is, I think some ways, a model of how the global economy is unfolding.
All right. So let's talk about it concretely. Uh, I talked about there was an early wave of globalization. And as you can see, it's from 1830s to 1992, and I will go and say these numbers are estimate. We don't really know what trade levels were around 1880s, but we have information that gives us a good estimate of what it looked like. And you do see that earlier wave, around that beginning of the 20th century, 1900s, there was a sort of wave where we had a rise in exports and imports, trade as a percent of the global economy, the amount of goods and services exchange as a percentage of the total amount of economic activity. Okay. And it really did occur. So in the, you know, middle of the 20th century, you might have said, well we've seen the global economy before. In the 1980s, many scholars said, “Oh, this globalization stuff is not that new. We've seen global exchange before. Early 20th century, there was higher level of all of these what we've done is restore the level that existed prior to the First World War and up until this goes to 1990s. It was basically just sparklingly back upwards after the period what really drove it down was the Great Depression and World Wars that really sort of undercuts the global economy. But what we now know if you just look at the figures since 1960s, the numbers are different from the previous slides, because the different ways of estimating things, but it gives you a picture of thrives, is that since the 1960s, and you look all the way to 2007, it's really just cap going. Okay. So early 1980s, tons of scholars wrote books, and they were arguing if globalization is real, is it something new, is it something we see distinctive, or have we seen it before? And many people said, it's not that new, it's not that big a deal. Now, that's a harder argument to make, because nowadays it kept going. It was sort of like we thought we've seen the peak around the 1990s, but if you look at sort of the middle of the figure in the 1990s, over the course of 90s, it blow up again. Okay. So trade has just kept going. And I've yet seen it plateau; it may be plateau with the global economic recession we are experiencing right now. But it's historically unpressitive(?) level of trade. It really is unique. Okay. We are looking at something like 50 or 60 percent of the global economy is involved in trade somehow. Uh, on the bottom you see foreign direct investment which as I said is one of the ways that international investment can occur as different from portfolio investment. It's much smaller, but it's certainly growing as well. We can look specifically at the fluent(?) democracy which are 18 itself rich democracies Japan, Western Europe, North America, you can imagine the countries. And we see some interesting trends. United States is the dotted line of the bottom, and you can say, “Well, the US is pretty small, but over the course of the 75 19 survived 1994, US doubled.” It went from 15 to 20 percent in terms of trade and…
