作者:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb 出版社: Random House Trade Paperbacks 副标题: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets 出版年: 2005-8 页数: 316 定价: USD 18.00 装帧: Paperback ISBN: 9780812975215
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
– Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: m...
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
– Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business– Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
Deriving from one single observation is the worst possible inferential mistake a person can make. Never overstate the importance of small samples.
[excerpt] The only article Lady Fortuna has no contr...Deriving from one single observation is the worst possible inferential mistake a person can make. Never overstate the importance of small samples.
[excerpt] The only article Lady Fortuna has no control over is your behavior. Good luck.(展开)
Second book by Taleb that I red, out of strong recommendations from an intellectually curious friend. I learned by finishing Taleb's book by ignoring the contents in brackets! Despite his arrogance an...Second book by Taleb that I red, out of strong recommendations from an intellectually curious friend. I learned by finishing Taleb's book by ignoring the contents in brackets! Despite his arrogance and condescending tones towards journalists, economists and dentists, one always find wisdom that could be applicable to one's benefit.(展开)
![[美国] 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布](https://img9.doubanio.com/img/author/medium/public/1500376598.06.jpg)
纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布 作者
要和平不要战争
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herock
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0 有用 咩咩得意 2015-01-10 22:56:38
2015年第一本书，1）很多不认识的单词，句子真心长，以后应该多读些这种难书 2）Sample大了，出现randomness的机会就很大
0 有用 yaoyao 2014-06-02 14:16:56
傲娇的作者有点可爱
0 有用 Auguste 2012-09-12 20:24:05
有些启发。
0 有用 红豆小布丁 2013-06-10 10:42:34
所以现在学的东西毫无疑义吗……
0 有用 Conficlown 2012-07-29 06:00:39
其实就那两三个观点颠来倒去说，一个是大众对“黑天鹅”的低估，一个是survival bias和对非理性欠缺承认和意识，有关投资的那个monkeys before typwriter的比方有些牵强，作者书读了不少，肯花功夫静心思考这是难得
0 有用 王尧 2024-04-09 10:19:36 北京
Don’t play with the wrong dice
0 有用 masterplan 2024-02-07 02:39:55 新加坡
短期冒险获利者非常多; 长期幸存逃脱者非常少; 二者同时存在
0 有用 mipropiocentro 2024-01-19 11:47:39 加拿大
Deriving from one single observation is the worst possible inferential mistake a person can make. Never overstate the importance of small samples. [excerpt] The only article Lady Fortuna has no contr... Deriving from one single observation is the worst possible inferential mistake a person can make. Never overstate the importance of small samples. [excerpt] The only article Lady Fortuna has no control over is your behavior. Good luck. (展开)
0 有用 nova 2024-01-14 16:59:06 北京
把随机性筛选出的胜者误认为是有能力是一种陷阱，追求确定性是另一种陷阱（《反脆弱》）。现在已经不太同意塔勒布的一些观点，但他不厌其烦地劝诫的这两大巨坑确实还是箴言。距离第一次看这本书也有10年了，这十年间爆炸掉的一时风光的人和项目，和他们的追随者，都是Fooled by Randomness.
0 有用 小胖小胖 2022-10-07 14:17:16 美国
Second book by Taleb that I red, out of strong recommendations from an intellectually curious friend. I learned by finishing Taleb's book by ignoring the contents in brackets! Despite his arrogance an... Second book by Taleb that I red, out of strong recommendations from an intellectually curious friend. I learned by finishing Taleb's book by ignoring the contents in brackets! Despite his arrogance and condescending tones towards journalists, economists and dentists, one always find wisdom that could be applicable to one's benefit. (展开)