Bayesian
mathematician at heart

Bayesian的日记  · · · · · ·  ( 全部 )

在我们的语言和文化里,“三”常常作为约数而非确数存在,是虚指,有“众多”的意思。于千万人中遇见你,偏说是“三生有幸”;转发超过500次,却只谓“三人成虎”。比成语的出现更早,对“三”的这一意义的使用可以追溯到仓颉造字时期:三棵树长在一起就是森林,三片水汇在一起就是浩淼烟波,三个人聚成一团就是兴师动众、......    (4回应)
今天lab meeting。Eyal同学忘记准备他自己的工作报告了,于是决定报告他这几天读的一篇paper——就是这篇日记提到的那篇Gelman's paper。。Eyal同学的报告题目是——“Eyal's Great Confusion on What is Bayesian and What it Has to Do with Science”。。。爆笑之后,我发现这是一个很好用的标题句式,比如如果我要做一......    (5回应)

Bayesian的相册  · · · · · ·  ( 创建2 · 关注0 )

门牌号码
2012-09-01更新
Joking Seriously
2012-04-08更新

Bayesian的评论  · · · · · · · · · ·  ( 评论2 )

Bayesian的书  · · · · · ·  ( 8本在读 · 11本想读 · 9本读过 )

在读
  • Mathematical Discovery
  • Mathematical Problem Solving
  • Heuristics
  • Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition
  • Machine Learning
想读
  • Language and Learning
  • Passions Within Reason
  • The Origin of Concepts (Oxford Series in Cognitive Development)
  • LOT 2
  • Markov Chains and Mixing Times

Bayesian的电影  · · · · · ·  ( 8部看过 )

留言板  · · · · · ·  ( 全部 )

1. "Not to be a republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."
---- it still holds if one replaces "republican" with "non-Bayesian".

2. “我们听过贝叶斯定理,却仍旧过不好这一生。”
---- evidence that Bayesian inference is computationally hard

The Fundamental Theorem of Life:

Life is magic, but only in hindsight.

Proof:

The proof is trivial if we apply the Time Trick, we thus omit the details here due to lack of space.

The Time Trick:

Define x(t) as the life state at day t, T as the live-a-day operator such that T(x(t)) = x(t+1), T^N = TT...T as the N-times composition of T. The Time Trick states that there exist integers n1, n2, 0 < n1 < n2 < 10*n1, and some way of living T, such that D(x, T^(n1)(x)) << 1, and D(x, T^(n2)(x)) >> 1, for some subjective semi-metric of life, D.

Footnote:

Empirical results suggest that n1 is approximately 365. Depending on the measure D one choose, n2 could vary but is typically no greater than 2000.


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