MMA金融市场分析--2016.11.14周报赏析

始于2016.11.14的一周 回顾 不用说，选举的事要重点盘点回顾～ “Elections have consequences, and at the end of the day, I won.” – President Obama to House Republican Whip Eric Cantor, January 23, 2009. 这时候回顾奥巴马的这句话，呵呵。。 耶鲁的学生 “Teary eyes, bowed heads, and cries of disbelief emerged from election-watching gatherings on Yale campus,” 而哈佛的 “Students, realizing that Clinton may not win, began to do homework.” In the most stunning upset in American political history, Donald Trump triumphed over the favored Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, November 4, and will serve as the USA’s 45th president. Once again, the candidate who was ahead in the polls 2-5 weeks before the election, lost. For most of Tuesday, Clinton was ahead. Then, just after midnight Eastern Standard Time, right around the time that Mars changed signs, from Capricorn to Aquarius, the votes for Trump started to pile up and he never looked back, while Clinton supporters found it very difficult to look ahead. It was crushing, heartbreaking - and so symbolic of someone going through a 29-year transit of Saturn over the nadir of her natal chart. 按回顾的说法，HILLARY一直领先，除了大选之日，火星换座后。。甩锅。。 又，（29年一周期的）土星碾压过HILLARY本命的天底（看来MERRIMEN老先生认可了HILLARY生于凌晨2点多的生时推断）。 这意思HILLARY真个是生不逢时咯～ Financial markets were just as stunned as the American populace. The Dow Jones Industrial futures market fell 800 points, and S&P fell 107 points, when it became clear that the improbable was happening. That set off the circuit breakers to stop trading. Gold reversed from a low of $1268/ounce and suddenly exploded up $70, to $1338. Ten-Year Notes were at a monthly high of 131, and suddenly collapsed down to 127/26, its lowest level since January. In the case of stocks, that pre-market plunge took equity indices to their lowest price since the Brexit mini panic last June (another surprise voting result that eluded pollsters). By the end of trading on November 9, the DJIA was up over 250 points, and the next day, another +200 points to a new all-time high (but not so in the S&P futures). Investors quickly realized that in Trump, they had a president who was on the side of economic growth – lower individual and corporate taxes, eliminating onerous regulations to small businesses, etc. USA stocks were quickly in demand, even though no one was quite sure how a man of his temperament would ever be able to work with Congress, let alone reverse his own huge negative approval ratings from the public going into the election. Gold and currencies against the U.S. Dollar did not fare so well after the initial surge. One day after the election results, Gold was re-testing $1250. By Friday, it was testing 1220, near the 1200 low of May 3, and down almost $120 in just two days. The U.S Dollar soared from a low of 95.88 on the eve of the election, to 99.13 on Friday, its highest mark since February 1. We are back on track for the U.S. Dollar to post its 16-year cycle crest, January 2017, +/- 6 months. 金融市场及黄金的波动～ 黄金急升与骤降, 两天之内跌掉120刀，快回到五月三日的1200一盎司的低位了，哇～ 近期星相 The word “supermoon” was coined in 1979 by astrologer Richard Nolle, AccuWeather’s Mark Paquette said. Nolle used the term to describe a new or full moon that occurs when the moon is at or near its closest approach to Earth… The exact moment of the full moon is Tuesday at 6:52 AM (MST). The moon will reach perigee – the moon’s closest point to earth, within about 90 minutes of that time…(This) November full moon (will be) the closest full moon since 1948.” – Doyle Rice, “Supermoon to be Closest Since 1948,” Arizona Republic, November 11, 2016. 1948年以来最大的、离地球最近的超级满月就发生在这周 It was a wild week, and it correlated with extreme emotions, from elation to despair – probably about what an astrologer could expect. All of this volatility may be associated with heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius (November 5-16). Sagittarius exaggerates everything. Next week it may continue with geocentric Mercury moving onto Sagittarius (November 12-December 2). The volatility of emotions (moon) could peak in the next three days, as we will witness the brightest super (full) moon since 1948. That just happened to be the last time such a stunning national election upset took place in the USA. Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey to become the president that year. Hardly anyone expected it. Everyone was shocked – elated or terribly distraught about the future. Everyone survived, and so too did the republic. Pollsters took a hit, however. Yet, people continued to look to the polls for guidance and have ever since – even though they occasionally misjudged the results. Sort of like astrologers. 再次提到1948年美国总统大选，哦，历史有其惊人相似之处，或者应该说其相似之处惊人 再说民调不靠谱，但大家还是一如既往地参考民调。有点象占星学家。。 So, what happened? How did so many credible and professional astrologers miss this election result? The answer is not hard to explain. Like pollsters, astrologers overweighed or underweighed various factors used in their forecasting models. Astrology didn’t miss the call, but astrologers (like pollsters) did, in their weighting of these factors, which creates a learning experience for all students of the cosmic science. There were several correlations in geocosmic and cyclical studies that pointed to a possible Trump victory, many of which were mentioned in this column, but few of which were given as much weight as other studies indicating a Clinton victory. It was, in many cases, a judgement call. And let us not lose sight of the fact that Clinton did win the popular vote, which really represents the limit of what astrological forecasting is designed to analyze. I cannot think of a single astrological model that would be able to measure or project an electoral vote outcome with more probability than a popular vote. Astrology is quite able to ascertain a person’s (such as a candidate’s) probable mood on any given day or period in life, and from that one may deduce that a particular candidate’s success or failure, assuming a victory is cause for elation and defeat is cause for heartbreak. In this case, it could have been. （没有预测准，原因么。。。各种解释分析。。） 不过，难能可贵的是老先生细数了其得出的几个教训 LESSON 1 – THE BIRTH TIME ISSUE 教训1：关于生时，果然要提到这个凌晨2点多的生时问题。。 It was only two weeks ago (October 28) that I wrote in this column the following words: “Now one final point to make. If Hillary is born at 2:18 AM, then Saturn has been transiting over her natal Nadir (4th house cusp), back and forth, due to its retrograde motion, since January 2016. This is the only chart of the three (that astrologers have been using) where this 29-year cyclical condition is present. The importance of this cannot be underscored in the study of astrology, for Saturn crossing the Nadir, is symbolically a low point in one’s outer life. It is a time of great challenges and personal dilemmas, where accountability is demanded for one’s prior actions and decisions. Saturn is the time keeper. It measures where you are in your station in life, according to where it is transiting in the chart. The higher it is in the chart, the higher the person is in his/her life cycle, generally speaking (other factors must also be considered, but by itself, this is the primary measurement used to ascertain that status). The lower it is the chart, the more difficult it is to attain what you want in terms of outward success – but it can be done, as long as one is fully accountable for their past actions and decisions. There is no escaping accountability when Saturn is strong by transit like this. By itself, it may not denote a loss in the election. However, as a forecasting tool, it is my opinion that if she losses the election, the time of 2:18 AM will have to be considered worthy of future consideration, more so than the other times of birth that are being used….” （Saturn is the time keeper. It measures where you are in your station in life, according to where it is transiting in the chart.人生际遇的峰谷从土星的星盘位置可以略见一斑） Given that there were two other more popular birth times (8:02 AM and 8:00 PM) ascribed to Hillary Clinton, based on her conversations with astrologers, and the source of the third – an alleged birth certificate citing of 2:18 AM – being attacked as not credible by many astrologers, the judgement was made to under weigh the 2:18 AM birth time. Yet, as noted here, that time of birth would have to be given much more credibility if HRC lost, which she did. Unfortunately, having this information now, post-election, will not be of much future use. Her career in national politics is probably history. LESSON 2 – THE 16-YEAR REPUBLICAN AND U.S. DOLLAR CYCLE 教训2：16年共和党执政和美元周期 For the past two years, I have highlighted the 16-year crest cycle in the U.S. Dollar correlating with a victory by the Republican candidate (1952, 1968, 1984, 2000), and 16-year cycle low correlating with the election of a Democrat (1944,1960, 1976, 1992, and 2008). That cycle seemed to be related to who would benefit most by the selection of each candidate. During the 16-year crest cycle, it was usually a Republican candidate who would support policies favorable to multi-national corporations and Wall Street, which benefitted from a lower dollar (making USA goods more affordable in world trade). In this election, multi-national corporations and Wall Street were supporting Hillary Clinton, even though she was Democrat, perhaps because Donald Trump was supporting the undoing of several trade agreements with other countries. He was spouting a line of trade protectionism, which could be harmful to multi-national corporations. Thus, it seemed as if the dynamics behind this cycle were reversed this year – Clinton and Democrats, not the Republicans, were more likely to support a falling Dollar. This became more evident in the spring, when the Federal Reserve Board began to shy away from its earlier narrative that it would raise its short-term rates in 2016. When it delayed raising rates as they indicated earlier in the year, the Dollar began to fall instead of rally. It appeared that the 16-year cycle crest in the Dollar would be broken this time, and a falling Dollar would support Clinton, not Trump. That situation then began to change in mid-October, when the Dollar rallied and broke above its downward trendline, indicating that indeed it would be testing or making new highs within its normal historical time band. In this case, that will be January 2017 +/- 6 months. In retrospect, I overanalyzed this factor (did I mention I have Virgo rising?). I gave too much weight to reasons behind a 16-year Dollar rally, rather than giving the more appropriate weight just to the cycle itself. 这个逻辑，或者说这个观察，，值得注意。 LESSON 3 – REPUBLICANS ARE FROM MARS, DEMOCRATS FROM VENUS 教训3：共和党来自火星，民主党来自金星 而民众选择了“火星” One of the major factors I considered was the synastry between the charts of the USA and that of the candidates. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine had their natal Sun in early water signs, making a grand trine to the USA Venus/Jupiter conjunction in early Cancer, another water sign. The Democrats would tap into a Venus/Jupiter dynamic with the American public. Venus and Jupiter are known as “benefics” in astrology, which are considered very favorable, even “lucky.” Clinton’s campaign slogan was “Stronger Together,” which reflects the partnering and sharing qualities of Venus. Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence are both Geminis, with their Sun in close conjunction to the USA Mars. Republicans in this election were thus from Mars, which is a “malefic” in the study of astrology. The Republicans would tap into the collective Mars dynamics of the public mood. Mars pertains to anger, combativeness, war-like acts, but also the desire to be first and best. Surely Trump’s path to Election Day was fraught with dissention and combativeness (even within his own party), but his motto was “Make America Great Again,” which also reflects the positive (albeit competitive) qualities of Mars. My error in judgement was assuming that, given the choice, most Americans would vote for the conciliatory path and “keep the peace.” They would choose the Venus/Jupiter dynamic over the “demand for change” dynamic of Mars. I was wrong in that judgement of my fellow Americans. They wanted to “Rid the Swamp of Corruption in Washington, D.C.” (another Trump slogan that resonated greatly in the American psyche), more than they wanted to keep the status quo. LESSON 4 – THE POWER OF PROGRESSIONS 教训4：推运的力量 Donald Trump was born June 14, 1946, 10:54 AM, in Queens, NY. His Ascendant is 29° 55’ Leo, conjunct the fixed star of Regulus, known as the “Regal Star” of the King. By a forecasting method known to astrologers as “Secondary Progressions” (based on “a day of life is equal to a year of life”), Trump’s progressed Sun has moved from 22° Gemini to his ascendant in late Leo, and also conjunct Regulus. Even though his progressed Sun is now at 0° 15’ Virgo, it is still within one-degree orb (only 20,’ or one-third of a degree) of conjunction to his Leo ascendant. TRUMP的推运太阳（处女座0度）合上升（狮子29）及帝王星“轩辕十四”。 The progressed Sun in conjunction to one’s natal ascendant denotes a time of great recognition and success. This was the basis for some astrologers correctly forecasting that Trump would win, such as Robert Thibodeau of Mayflower Books, in Berkley, Michigan. In my own judgement, I incorrectly thought that just the mere fact Trump had so much publicity and recognition running for the office itself was enough to qualify this progression. Plus, on the day of the election, the progressed Sun was already in Virgo, which I thought would weaken its force. It did not. In fact, he grew stronger in the days leading up to the election. Thus, my underweighting of this factor provided yet another learning experience: never underestimate the power of a progressed Sun over one’s natal ascendant, right until its end. The progressed Sun on the ascendant is much more than recognition. It can actually result in victory. Now we wait and see if it also means his leadership is capable of unifying the country and healing the wounds that presently divide us. These matters will be discussed in the Forecast 2017 Book. There are many more lessons that were learned from this election, both astrologically and psychologically, not to mention spiritually. However, the main takeaway from this week’s election is that astrology works fine. It is still one of the most valuable timing tools known to humankind. The problem is not astrology, but rather the astrologer and his/her weighting of astrological factors examined in the course of making a forecast. Unfortunately, astrologers – like pollsters – are human, and prone to occasionally make errors in judgment. However, the rate of success in forecasting by a well-trained and credible professional astrologer is still very, very high. Additionally, most of you are interested in the timing of financial markets, and in this regard, no one can complain about this year’s stellar market timing performance. Just like markets, everything in life moves in cycles, and the correlation between cycles of planetary movements to cycles in human activity remains as valuable and insightful as ever. It is one of the things of life that will never change. How can it, if we are connected to the Infinite? 好吧，错的永远不是占星，是占星师，占星师也是人嘛 （everything in life moves in cycles）